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A year on from Brexit and where next for Pound Euro rates? (Tom Holian)

We are now just over a year from the Brexit vote when the UK decided to vote to leave the European Union and we have just finished the first week of Brexit talks with the EU.

Theresa May has suggested that the UK would look to guarantee the rights of EU nationals living in the UK but a reciprocal deal has not been discussed by the Europeans.

The talks are likely to be lengthy and difficult and as yet it is not clear whether a hard or a soft Brexit will happen and until that is decided the Pound is likely to remain under real pressure vs the Euro.

In the short term the UK is still in a state of political limbo and we are now a fortnight on from the election result and we still don’t have a majority government.

In my opinion I think next week we’ll see a deal reached between the Tories and the DUP and when this does happen I think we’ll see the Pound make some gains vs the Euro albeit short lived.

The reason why I think the Pound will make a short lived gain is that the focus will almost immediately go back to the Brexit talks and therefore I think the Pound will fall following the boost provided by a majority government being formed.

Therefore, if you’re looking at buying Euros it may be worth waiting to see if a deal is reached between the Tories and the DUP.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident of being able to offer you better rates when buying currency as well as helping you with various contract types.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Boost to Start the Day (Ben Fletcher)

The GBP/EUR rate jumped above 1.14 this morning providing a good window of opportunity for Euro buyers. Whilst there isn’t a particular reason for the jump this morning I would put it down to the fact that the Brexit talks seem to be off to a positive start.

There was always going to be some concern that, following main political leaders suggesting the UK would not get a good deal, the talks could have caused major Sterling weakness. However the weakness seems to have happened now and Sterling is starting to move away from its lowest position.

Now that the Brexit discussions are in full swing, I think there will be more certainty for Sterling moving forwards. The likelihood of a soft Brexit all but doubled overnight when Theresa May lost her majority in Parliament.  A soft Brexit would be well received by UK PLC as there would be more chance of the existing trade deal remaining in place.

Data next Week

There will be one key event next week from a data perspective on Tuesday morning when the Inflation Report Hearings are heard at the House of Commons. Considering inflation is on the up with 2.9% being the latest reading, the report may provide scope for an interest rate hike. If there was to be an interest hike in the UK then I believe Sterling would gain over 2% against the major currencies.

If you’re looking to complete a currency transfer using Sterling it would be worth discussing your particular requirement further. Working for a brokerage I have tools available to set alerts in the market for free and notify you to any movements in your favour. I would also be able to help you achieve the best rate, even if you want to just compare for peace of mind against an existing method. If you do have any questions or would like to discuss a requirement please send me an email at brf@currencies.co.uk.

GBP EUR Remains Weak ahead of Parliamentary Vote Next Week (James Lovick)

The pound remains on the back foot as the political uncertainty that the UK faces continues to drive the markets. GBP EUR has fallen below 1.1350 after a disappointing afternoon yesterday following the queens speech. Clients looking to sell Euros for pounds are in an excellent position with rates close to a seven month high. It may be sensible to consider securing at these kind of levels as they may not hang around indefinitely.

Focus now moves to next week’s parliamentary vote on the Queens speech in the House of Commons. If all goes through without a hitch then the pound could see a rally as some political confidence is restored in Britain. Clients looking to buy Euros could see a good buying opportunity in the next week. In these markets there are good opportunities that come about so do let us know if you have a future requirement and we can try and help you with this.

The other factor to consider is whether an agreement can be made between the Conservative party and Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). A deal could be in the offing but it is now two weeks on since the general election which does give some cause for concern. A lack of agreement could make things very difficult for a minority conservative government and the pound could see some short term weakness in this event.

UK data is light as we end the week although EU consumer confidence data today and manufacturing and services data tomorrow could see some new direction for Euro exchange rates.

If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Where next for the GBPEUR exchange rate?

The pound to Euro exchange rate has been struggling to find any traction or direction in the last couple of weeks as markets continue to balance the various potential outcomes from all of the uncertainty around in the market at present. Firstly we have the uncertainty relating to the outcome of the UK election, rumours of a deal for Theresa May and the Conservative party with the Democratic Unionist Party are remaining just that and appears to be all manner of potential extra problems this will create, which will only hurt further the pound. Movements of 2-3 cents once an announcement is made cannot be discounted, if you wish to trade on such movements please speak to me Jonathan to get an understanding of how to buy at the best rates.

Of course it is not always a one-way street on the market, most commentators monitoring the outcome for the UK believe the uncertainty makes a soft Brexit more likely and that this will lead to further improvements for the pound. This is because the appetite for a ‘hard Brexit’ which many previously believed Theresa May would advocate has now diminished.

Overall the market is unlikely to settle down anytime soon with Jeremy Corbyn still potentially seeking to form his own government ahead of parliament’s vote on Theresa May’s program next week.

Currency markets are fickle beasts and with the Euro strengthening as political uncertainty over France is removed, overall impressions moving forward are now centering on a stronger Euro, of course it will be the relative strength of the pound which will determine the more short term movements. Sudden spikes in and out of your favour are highly likely, if you need to move any funds being prepared in this kind of market is key.

Thank you for reading and if you would like to learn more please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk, thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Best rate to buy Euros with Pounds since November (Tom Holian)

The Euro vs the Pound is now at its best exchange rate to buy Pounds since November last year as the UK political landscape remains uncertain.

At the time of writing Prime Minister Theresa May has still yet to form a majority government although the likelihood is that this will happen soon as a potential deal with the DUP is reached.

It took 20 days previously when a hung parliament happened for the Lib Dems and the Tories to form a coalition and we are currently in the same state of limbo which is negatively impacting the Pound.

UK inflation has risen recently to 2.9% from 2% which is way above the Bank of England’s target and the reason why there was a 5-3 split in favour of keeping interest rates on hold. For months we have only seen 1 of the members vote for a rate hike so to see this change to 3 is a big surprise.

However, Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney spoke yesterday to strongly suggest that there will be no rate change coming as the Brexit is likely to make people poorer and now is not the time to be raising interest rates which in turn would increase the cost of living.

This has caused the Pound to fall further against the Euro sending GBPEUR exchange rates to their lowest point in over 7 months.

The Brexit negotiations have also started and things do not appear to be going very well so far and in my opinion I think the talks will become difficult and protracted which is likely to cause problems for the Pound vs the Euro in the future.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that I can save you money when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank.

For a free quote or further information please email me directly and I look forward to hearing form you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Pound suffers with Mark Carney dismissal of UK interest rate rise (Joshua Privett)

The optimistic beginning to the week was squashed for the Pound, with Sterling losing out heavily following the damning denunciation from Mark Carney that an interest hike in the UK will be occurring anytime soon.

You may have already seen the coverage on this website of this month’s interest rate decision in the UK economy. Sterling rose heavily when we had the closest vote split for an interest rate hike since the recession occurred. This was in reaction to rising inflation which is now well above the level the Bank of England aims for. Carney’s comments that ‘now is not the time for an interest rate hike’ blew squarely in the face of expected theory when it comes to what constitutes the factors necessary to raise rates.

The surprise is why the Pound has backtracked heavily this afternoon.

Yet this is arguably a ‘blip’. This interest rate feature is not the key part in the larger narrative surrounding the Pound, but rather the ongoing election saga and the Brexit discussions are.

The next step in these story is the Queen’s speech tomorrow, where we will finally hear an idea of this Government’s current aims, and whether these have changed since the pre-election period.

Expectations are for a softer Brexit to be put forward to some degree, particularly due to the Conservatives recent partnership with the DUP. They will likely be wishing for a fairly fluid border with Ireland, so would like to remain part of the Customs Union for example.

How the Conservatives choose to move forward will be key, and we are all waiting with baited breath, and anyone with a Euro buying requirement should care very much for what the result will be.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Sterling-Euro based currency requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you significant sums of money on a prospective transfer.

Sterling drops as key UK figureheads make dovish comments at Mansion House speech, will Sterling continue to drop?

The Pound has dropped across the board this morning as one of the most important figures within the UK economy, Mark Carney (the governor of the Bank of England) has suggested that interest rates shouldn’t rise yet.

The Pound is now trading at a 1-week low after these comments, as Carney said that Britain isn’t ready for higher rates. His comments would have shocked the markets as many would have been expecting to see a rate hike within the UK after almost half of the voting members of the BoE just last week voted in favour of raising interest rates.

Carney said that it wouldn’t be right to change rates whilst we don’t know the outcome of Brexit negotiations.

The reason behind the Pound dropping in light of these comments, as well as some similarly dovish comments by Phillip Hammond (Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer), is that a rate hike would most likely give the Pound a boost which is why the Pound climbed last week after the BoE’s voting decision.

There isn’t much further data out this week for the Pound specifically, so I expect sentiment to continue to drive rates.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

The impact of the Brexit talks on GBPEUR exchange rates (Tom Holian)

We are now almost a year on from  when the UK voted with a majority to leave the European Union and on Monday of next week the Brexit negotiations will finally be able to begin.

As the Conservatives failed to win with a majority the likelihood is that they will form an alliance with the DUP but as yet we are still waiting. Indeed, when this issue happened previously it took 20 days for the Tories to form the coalition with the Lib Dems.

At the moment it has not been made clear whether the UK will opt for a hard or a soft Brexit and until this issue is resolved I think the Pound will fail to make any real gains vs the Euro. Confidence is low for the UK at the moment politically and this is why the Pound is struggling against the single currency.

We did see a brief increase on Thursday when the Bank of England confirmed a 5-3 split in favour of keeping interest rates on hold. Inflation is currently at 2.9% and the Bank of England’s target is for 2% so the disparity is why the vote came out so differently from before.

Coming back to the issue of Brexit the key issue for me is that there are 27 member states who want to discourage each other from leaving the European Union and therefore I cannot see how the talks will go well at least in the short term.

Therefore, this is why I think we will see the Pound struggle against the Euro next week.

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident not only of being able to offer you better exchange rates compared to using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of currency.

If you would like further information or a free quote when buying or selling Euros and would like to save money then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling to Euro rate jumps after BoE rate decision, will Sterling continue to climb? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound jumped at 12pm this afternoon, making the rate for buying Euros much cheaper for our clients in just a matter of seconds.

Financial markets were expecting to see all members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee vote in favour of keeping rates on hold, but got a shock when almost half voted in favour of rising rates.

At the time of writing our clients are able to book Pound to Euro rates that are over 1-cent higher than the lowest level seen today after the Pound has managed to hold onto its gains after the decision.

The reasoning behind some of the voting members decision to raise rates is most likely due to the raising rates of inflation, which are now almost 1% above the BoE’s target of 2%.

The BoE is likely to have to raise the base rate of interest in order to counter the negative effects of inflation within the UK, especially as the rate of wage growth is declining which will leave investors with a lot less spending power.

Moving forward I think that those with a GBP/EUR currency requirement should keep an eye on inflation rates, and feel free to keep in contact with us regarding the rate and also the dates that the data is released.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

UK economic data to impact pound euro exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

This morning is the latest release of retail sales. Last months figure impressed due to the surprisingly hot weather and this months figures are set to show a decline which is no surprise.  However as long as the numbers are released close to the consensus I don’t expect the pound to drop to much this morning off the back of the poor release.

Later this afternoon the monetary policy committee from the Bank of England are set to release their latest interest rate decision. Inflation numbers released last Tuesday gave support for the pound as the figure was released at 2.9%, 0.9% above the Bank of England’s target.

Last month one member of the MPC voted in favour of hiking interest rates and if any of the other 7 members vote in favour I would expect to see the pound increase in value against the euro and recover some of the losses from the shock election result. Furthermore, Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney will address the public after the decision and I wouldn’t be surprised if he confirms the Bank of England will act if inflation rises.

All in all today could be a good day for the pound, however Brexit negotiations are set to start in the upcoming weeks as long as Theresa May manages to form a government, and trying to predict how these negotiations will impact the pound is close to impossible.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros this year, the currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales.

Therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn. Please note I am not in the office until Tuesday morning due to the Bank Holiday.

The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you. Below is a list of what I require: your name, currency pair, brief description of requirement, amount, budget, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.