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Pound Sterling Forecast against the Euro (Tom Holian)

The Pound has continued to make gains vs the Euro as the UK economic data published recently has been better than expected.

UK Retail sales published last week came out strong in defiance of the vote to leave the European Union and this provided the first of the positive signs and the subsequent fightback from the Pound vs the Euro.

This continued with strong UK consumer confidence levels as well as healthy UK GDP figures published yesterday with 0.6% growth for the quarter.

The British economy has one again shown its resilience and if the economic data continues to show signs of growth then we could see the Pound make further gains against the Euro.

Indeed, following the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates as well as increase QE recently then if the British economy remains strong then we may not see any change in monetary policy before the end of the year and this could provide the catalyst for the Pound to move towards 1.20 to buy Euros.

Potentially good news if you’re buying a property in Europe!

However, the uncertainty of when Article 50 may be triggered could also keep Sterling from making these possible gains so if you’re looking at making a currency transfer in the next few weeks or months then it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for  future date for a small deposit.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Will Sterling Recovery Continue? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has managed to claw back some ground against the Euro this week, with the pair hitting 1.1784 at the high. Despite the pair slipping slightly yesterday we are still trading around 1.17, bringing some much needed respite to those clients holding the Pound.

The catalyst for Sterling’s improvement was some better than expected economic data, in the form of UK Retail Sales & Unemployment figures. There has also been more market focus this week on the problems facing some of the Italian banks and this combined has alleviated some of the recent pressure on the Pound.

Despite this improvement I am not anticipating Sterling’s spike to continue at any great pace, as a sustainable improvement under current market conditions remains unlikely in my opinion. Whilst the on-going uncertainty surrounding our future Brexit continues to cloud the markets investors risk appetite is likely to remain minimal and whilst rates will not move solely in one direction, GBP/EUR is unlikely to move back above 1.20 anytime soon.

It may be worth looking at the recent improvement as the silver lining many clients have been waiting for and considering we are now trading over three cents higher than the month’s low, I would be extremely tempted to secure any short-term GBP/EUR positions.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, you can email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR has broken the €1.17 mark, will the Pound continue to strengthen? (Joseph Wright)

Despite softening slightly today the Pound has been strengthening this week as the 1.17 level was breached earlier this week, with the pair hitting a highest level of 1.1766 at it’s highest level this week.

Sentiment is likely to continue to drive the pair as there is a lack of data due for release in the short-term future, with investors having to wait until September for a news release that could really create volatility within exchange rates.

It’s likely that sentiment has improved towards the Pound as it’s been announced that since the ‘Brexit’ vote, both Retail Sales and Manufacturing has seen a boost which is likely due to the weaker Pound. At the same time it could be that the Euros run is coming to an end as the Eurozone does seem to be doing all it can not to spook investors, especially since the UK’s vote to leave the EU.

Both Portugal and Spain have an their deficits increased in what would seem to be a move to relax the marketplace, and this week Angela Merkel highlighted the importance of the EU sticking together during a speech in Estonia. I think that there could be issues on the horizon in many EU countries, and there is already is issue of dropping tourism in France due to regular terrorist attacks they’re having to deal with.

For these reasons I am becoming a lot more optimistic about the Pound moving forward, although I think it’s going to be a long time until we’re back to pre-brexit levels.

If you would like to discuss an upcoming currency requirement involving the Pound and Euro, feel free to contact me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Will GBPEUR hit 1.20 again?

Sterling to Euro exchange rates have rallied on the back of some good news showing UK exports are up following the GBP weakness of the last few weeks. This good news has helped the pound to find some further firm footing following a very tough few weeks that saw the UK cut interest rates, launch and expand their QE (Quantitative Easing) program and further doubts and worries arise over the outlook for the UK politically following the Brexit vote.

If you have a transfer to consider involving buying the pound or Euro then the current lift might not last, I think there is more chance of seeing 1.15 again before 1.20 but you never know. The market is currently very negative about the pound and the outlook is not particularly rosy however in the absence of any fresh bad news markets are reacting fairly positively to the fact there has been some half decent data and there has been no more bad news. It was very interesting to hear today that Owen Smith the potential new leader of the Labour party in the UK is calling for another Referendum before Article 50 is invoked.

The market is still not looking great for Euro buyers with pounds and I would be very surprised to see any fresh major spikes unless we see something unexpected from the Eurozone such as a Greek shock or the announcement of more monetary stimulus by the ECB. If you have a transfer to consider involving the pound and Euro please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Euro rates continue to rally

  • GBPEUR trading at 1.17
  • Euro consumer confidence shows sharp falls
  • CBI Industrial Trends Survey shows stronger confidence
  • Will the Pound continue its upward trend?

Pound to Euro at 2 week high – Will the trend continue

Following on from the Brexit saga, the impact of Brexit, or at least the vote itself, has so far caused limited shock to the British economy. Much of the Brexit doom and gloom has arguably been overplayed, at least in the short term anyway.

Sterling is now at a 2 week high against the Euro. Data release after data release has so far painted a softer consequence of the vote which has seen an uprise in the Pound’s value. The latest CBI Industrial survey which measures business confidence in certain sectors shows confidence is only down slightly following the Brexit vote.

Last week’s retail sales and GDP estimates also contradicted the impact of Brexit, however it may be some time before we see the true impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.

Will the Pound continue to improve?

I personally believe that GBPEUR exchange rates will continue to improve as long as economic releases contradict post-Brexit doom. Whilst the UK remains in the Eurozone there is still plenty of time for investors to buy into the Pound. I do however see this rally being short lived, once news of Article 50 comes to light the UK will enter a new stage of uncertainty. Do you need to buy Euro’s in the near future and would like more information on the best time to exchange? You can email me at rdl@currencies.co.uk. There does remain opportunities to buy the Euro in the weeks and possibly months ahead and I’d be more than happy to assist you with any questions.

Sterling Rises to a near 2 week high (Ben Fletcher)

The GBP/EUR rate sits above 1.165 for the first time in nearly 2 weeks as German Markit services PMI data falls well short of the expected result along with the EU Markit Manufacturing PMI also falling short for August. This comes as the German, French and Italian Prime minister all pledged that the Brexit vote will not weaken the EU bloc. There is no doubt that the Euro has done very well off the back of the UK Referendum however as the dust settles it appears some of the Eurozone’s problems could once again become main stream news.

The banking crisis in Italy and Greece are flaring up once more, this time more in Italy as the country is set to go to their own Referendum shortly. The whole nation will get the chance to vote on weakening the senate’s powers and the current Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has somewhat put his position on the line. Renzi if he doesn’t win has previously stated he may well resign; this would be the last thing Italy need when there is already a critical banking crisis.

Confederation of British Industry Survey reveals good news

Whilst normally a fairly minor data release today this business sentiment data proved very handy for Sterling. The survey asks senior executives for their opinions on the trends for outputs and price changes. Whilst the figure was expected to be down on July’s it was substantially higher than the level expected. Since Brexit the business sentiment data has been one of the main reasons for Sterling’s fall. In my opinion I think we have reached the bottom of Sterling and whilst it might not be a quick recovery the rate could start to rise.

Working for an established brokerage allows me to achieve the best rates of exchange for my clients. I am also able to assist with the timing of a transaction to make sure you get the most for your money. If you would like some information with regards to a currency requirement please email me at brf@currencies.co.uk.

Business confidence figures today set to bolster the Euro (Joshua Privett)

The Pound saw a welcome rise yesterday for Euro buyers following what had been a torrid Friday afternoon and weekend of enduring lower rates.

The Pound gained against all majors and actually rose over a cent against the Euro in particular as normal market activity resumed once more.

We are seeing the Pound come under increased duress as we enter the weekend due to the phenomenon of profit taking in the market. During the week, speculators at high street institutions accrue vast profits which must logically be allocated to a stable currency in order to protect those gains over the weekend. Whilst markets do not move on Saturday and Sunday, movement will still be seen in the late hours of Friday when North American Markets and still open, and the very early hours of Monday when Asian markets open ahead of the rest. So it is prudent to make sure their gains are protected.

However, due to the instability of the Pound in the wake of the Brexit vote, the Pound is very low on the list of desired currencies to which to store those profits. The sudden demand for alternative currencies, alongside demand for the Pound completely collapsing, sees its value against other major currency pairings tumble on Friday afternoons.

But when markets reopen first thing on Monday, the abundance of cheap Sterling being bought up is seeing those losses eaten into, hence the gains yesterday.

Moving forward today we have business confidence figures for the Eurozone at 10am this morning, and due to the 300% increase in foreign investment in the Eurozone compared to this same time last year – the Euro is set to enjoy an increase in value from the positive news.

GBP/EUR buyers may be wise to move sooner rather than later today, with markets already beginning to tip against their favour as we open this morning.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return.

 

 

Is Sterling set for more Trouble? (Daniel Johnson) Pound Forecast

The pound has  weakened against the majority of major currencies due to the Brexit. Most of the  data released so far has been based on June’s data so I feel now as July’s UK data starts to come through the pound could fall further.Retail sales in July came positive against the general consensus there would be a fall and we did see a minor rally for Sterling against the Euro. I think this can be attributed to an increase in tourism created by the weak pound and favorable  British weather.

The Bank of England  has recently dropped interest rates from the record low of 0.5% to 0.25% and introduced further Quantitative Easing (QE) to t £80bn. QE is where a central bank pumps money into an economy in an attempt to stimulate growth. QE generally weakens the currency in question. Ian McCafferty a member of the monetary policy committee (MPC) has said if UK data continues to come in poorly more monetary easing will be needed. HSBC are predicting GBP/EUR could reach parity in the near future. If you are selling Sterling short to medium term I would move sooner rather than later.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. I work at Foreign Currency Direct PLC. Our company has been in business for over sixteen years we have no debt and we offer rates of exchange that will beat almost any competitor. If you would like my help I will provide a free individual trading strategy. To do so I will need to know the amount you ar etransferring as a ball park figure, the currencies involved and your time scale You can get in touch with me by e-mailing me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Or alternatively use the form below for the fastest response.

Will GBPEUR rise or fall?

GBPEUR has risen a little this week but I do not believe this is anything to get too excited about. I personally expect the pound to fall further in the future owing to worries over the Brexit and just what lies ahead. The likelihood of further worries for the pound casuing the rate to slip are high, there is still a very high chance that the Bank of England will look to cut interest rates further and that they will also need to look at more QE or Quantitative Easing. All in all the political uncertainty is unlikely to leave use and we will remain bogged down in uncertainty as more and more of the troubles and problems arise.

If you need or wish to look at any transfers buying or selling the pound I would suggest making plans well in advance but basically preparing for the pound to drop further. All in all it appears likely the pound could drop further as we look to understand exactly what is likely to happen over the course of the next few weeks. My personal preference is for some kind of clarity asap on the markets to provide certainty and direction on the exchange rate and for clients.

The reality is events will remain unclear and sterling weak,I think the pound has further to fall personally. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Sterling rallies following UK Retail sales figures – GBP Forescast (Daniel Charles Johnson)

Sterling has fallen considerably against the majority of major currencies due to the EU referendum vote. The majority of UK data has been negative and Sterling has suffered as a result. The data that has been coming through has been predominantly been pre-brexit from June. July data is just starting to filter through and I think we will begin to see the true damage of a vote to leave the EU. Having said that UK retail sales figures came in higher than expected for July and we saw a Sterling spike as a result. I would not put my hopes on a continued rally as I think this can be attributed to an increase in tourism and a reluctance from the UK populace to go abroad due to the pounds weakness and of course the rarity that is decent UK weather.

The Bank of England (BOE) recently cut interest rates and increased Quantitative Easing (QE) after poor Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data.PMI is a measure of manufacturing output and forced the BOE’s hand. Ian McCafferty a member of the monetary policy committee (MPC) has stated that should we see more below par UK data more monetary easing will occur. I think the pound could well fall further.

If you have a currency trade it is crucial to be in touch with an seasoned broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile times,.If you have an experienced broker on board he or she can be your eyes and ears in the market to assist you in making an informed decision. If you would like me to work on your trade I will be happy to help. Please inform me of  the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy. I work for one of the top brokerages in the UK. I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. The authors of Pound Sterling Forecast all work at Foreign Currency Direct PLC. We are constantly up to date with the events that move the currency markets with most of us writing two blogs per day. By using our brokerage you would be looking at around a 4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do not hesitate to get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to being of help. You can also fill in the contact form below and I will be in touch as soon as possible.