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Italian referendum to set the tone for Sterling Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

If you’re in the process of looking to convert Pounds into Euros or exchanging Euros into Sterling then tomorrow’s Italian referendum on constitutional reform is likely to set the tone for the currency pair for next week.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is looking to centralise the banking sector which is struggling with huge debt and in its current state is difficult to change. He has however said that he may look to resign if the vote doesn’t go his way and at the moment polls are showing that the vote is likely to be very close.

If he does end up resigning then the political uncertainty caused by who will take his place is likely to have a negative effect on the Euro and this could be the catalyst needed to send GBPEUR rates upwards towards 1.20 and perhaps even breaking through this level. Therefore, if you’re looking to buy Euros in the short term then this could be the good news that you’ve been waiting for.

The European Central Bank will also be meeting on Thursday to discuss their latest interest rate decision. Although I don’t expect any change to interest rates if ECB president Mario Draghi suggests that further Quantitative Easing may be needed in order to combat falling inflation then this could also help push Sterling up vs the single currency.

However, the UK is still struggling with the Article 50 and until we have some form of resolution then we are likely to see GBPEUR rates remain volatile.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that with my experience I can help you with the timing of your transfer as well as save you money when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank.

For a free quote please email me directly with details about the volume you’re looking to convert and the timescale involved and I look forward to hearing from you.

teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP/EUR now approaching 1.20 after a very strong November, will it break through this key level? (Joseph Wright)

There certainly appears to be a bullish bias for Sterling exchange rates and yesterday that positive sentiment improved even further.

It will be interesting to see whether the Pound to Euro exchange rate will manage to break through the 1.20 mark and I think it will act as a psychological level, and should the Pound break that mark I expect it to hold it’s ground otherwise I’m expecting 1.20 to act as a ceiling within the short term future.

Positive sentiment surrounding the Pound was boosted yesterday afternoon after the Brexit Secretary, David Davis offered in insight into the governments thinking regarding the upcoming Brexit process. During questions in the House of Commons suggested the government would consider making any contribution towards the EU in order to retain access to the single market.

These comments buoyed Sterling bulls and the Pound it almost a 4 month high against the Euro, making exchanging Pounds into Euros a considerably more attractive trade now than just a month ago.

Prior to yesterday’s comments the Pound was boosted through November by the election of Donald Trump after his warm words towards the UK during his election campaign, the Brexit campaign and also his own business interests here.

Whilst the current market points to further Sterling strength those hoping the Pound will gain further should note that after gaining a lot of value in a short space of time, the Pound could be vulnerable should sentiment change. It could only take one comment from a prominent figure regarding a ‘Hard Brexit’ which could result in a Sterling sell-off.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

The Pound rallies despite less than impressive stress test results (Daniel Johnson)

RBS fail Bank Stress Test


Yesterday saw the release of the Bank of England’s (BOE) stress tests, these tests are administered to see if a bank can withstand a global financial crisis. RBS was well below par with Barclays and Standard Charted also falling short. RBS has made assurances that steps are being taken to address its under performance in the tests. Let us not forget RBS 73% government owned.

Household Debt hits 133%

Another worrying point that was made during the financial stability report was house hold debt.The current ratio of house hold debt to income is 133%. Mark Carney did try to quell any panic and stated it is not as bad as financial crisis levels. It didn’t fill me with confidence.

Despite an initial fall we did see Sterling rally in the afternoon against the majority of major currencies. Positive US data caused investors to leave the Euro and move o the safe haven of the US dollar and hopes of higher interest with the strong possibility of a rate hike on December 14th. OPEC also brokered a deal to reduce oil production which should have caused a rise in commodity influenced currencies. Theory doesn’t always prove to be correct however, end of month flow took affect and the direction of which the currency pair will move is extremely hard to predict during such volatile times.

If  you have a currency requirement it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced currency broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such a unpredictable period, If you have a seasoned broker on board they can keep you up  with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. Should you find our information useful and you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You could be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Feel free to get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

GBP/EUR Rates Hit 1.18! (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have spiked to 1.18 during Tuesday’s trading, with the pair hitting 1.18 at today’s high. This has provided those clients holding Sterling with some of the best rates they’ve had over the past few months, with the Pound gaining over four cents at the high over the past few weeks.

Whilst Sterling has clearly found a foothold in the market, is investor confidence high enough to drive the Pound forward further or have we seen reach a peak in the short-term?

It is a difficult question to dissect, as the economic and social problems within the Eurozone are likely to manifest themselves over the coming months. The Italian referendum is a key sticking point and a negative outcome will likely change the political landscape and as such, cause further uncertainty in one of the Eurozone’s key economies.

We also need to consider the political unrest spreading across Europe and if this year’s Brexit decision and US election results are anything to go by then who knows which parties may be in power in Eurozone strongholds by the end of 2017.

There is also a distinct possibility that European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi will announce next month that they are extending their current monetary policy (QE) programme, beyond the current March 2017 cut-off date. If this is indeed the case, expect EUR weakness off the back of this decision.

On the flip side, you have to look at the on-going uncertainty surrounding the UK economy and with the Supreme Court ruling in December regarding how Article 50 can be triggered, only likely to cloud matters further, the Pound could well come under further pressure as we head towards the end of 2016.

This analysis leads me to believe that anyone with a short to medium-term GBP/EUR currency requirement should looking to take advantage of the current improvement if you are holding Sterling, or protect the huge gains made for EUR sellers over the past few months.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Buying Euro rates recover slightly to begin the day (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro rates of exchange took a tumble yesterday as markets begin to realign ahead of the end of month period.

Sterling has suffered extensively and regularly during the tirade of protective selling by high street traders who wish to protect their positions by selling off visibly less stable currencies such as the Pound. This is normally done at the end of the month and each week but for separate reasons.

On a weekly basis traders have to protect their profits for the brief period when they are away from their desks and cannot actively protect their positions. As such they buy up safe-haven currencies in order to do this in a passive fashion and feel confidence knowing that 6-11pm period when UK markets have closed but North American markets are still trading, and the Monday morning period from 3am until UK markets open when Asian markets are buying and selling at full steam.

Moving forward GBP/EUR rates of exchange are recovering slightly this morning for two reasons.

Firstly, news of a legal challenge into Article 50’s scope, being that it does not encompass the attempt to leave the single market as a whole, is painting a more digestible picture for investors in regards to Sterling as this points to a greater likelihood of a softer exit from the Eurozone.

Secondly, Sterling is waiting for the release of the UK’s most recent mortgage approval figures at 9:30am this morning, which is meant to show a marked improvement despite the tone of the Brexit in the background.

As such we could see GBP/EUR see a brief glimpse of strength before the end of the month trading patterns eat into the Pound. As such I strongly recommend that anyone with a buying Euro requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on an upcoming transfer.

Euro exchange rate forecast for the week ahead (Tom Holian)

Sterling has hit the best level to buy Euros since September during the course of the week hitting 1.18 on a number of occasions during the last few days.

After being one of the worst performing currencies globally only three months ago the rally for Sterling has certainly gathered sone real pace against the single currency. The Euro is really struggling and is now close to its lowest point vs the US Dollar in over 10 years following the US election.

Global investors have been selling off the Euro in favour of both the US Dollar and Sterling and this could be set to continue as I believe the US Federal Reserve may increase interest rates at their next meeting on 14th December. The US economy has gone from strength to strength during 2016 and a US interest rate hike next month could cause further weakening for the single currency vs Sterling.

In just over a week’s time the Italians will be holding their own referendum on constitutional reform and if current PM Matteo Renzi does not win then we could see a possible resignation which is likely to cause further political instability towards the end of the year. Political uncertainty often causes a currency to weaken and I think we could see further gains for Sterling vs the Euro in the weeks ahead possibly challenging 1.20 before the end of the year.

There are still problems with the issue of Article 50 but I think there are more problems on the continent and the Brexit is also not good news for the European Union.

If you’re considering selling Euros into Sterling and in the middle of selling your property abroad then it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to secure an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident of being able to save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank and also help you with the timing of your transfer.

If you would like a free quote then email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Sterling Falls from Peak of 1.18 (James Lovick)

Sterling exchange rates have seen a volatile day against most currencies with mixed market movements throughout the day. GBP EUR has fallen by 0.55% moving lower from the high of 1.18 touched this morning. GBP USD also maintains the higher ground with levels for this pair just below 1.25. The pound has fallen after comments from the Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat made clear that EU leaders were not bluffing when they state that Britain must not receive a good deal when leaving the EU.

The negative tone suggests that Britain will not get an easy ride which is why the pound has reacted slightly negatively although this rhetoric is becoming very common place.

UK GDP data today has come out as expected at 0.5% for the third quarter which should be taken as positive for the British economy although politics have been the driving force. Mortgage approvals are released on Monday and may give some more clues as to how well the British economy is performing.

Purchasing Managers Index data for the services, manufacturing and construction sectors are also released next week and these can have an impact on the price of sterling. In the Eurozone Mario Draghi will be speaking on Monday and he may give a nod to additional quantitative Easing which would be negative for the Euro.

Clients who are holding sterling are seeing some much better times for buying Euros. We do appear to have now hit the peak for GBP EUR just over 1.18 this morning before coming back down sharply.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement either buying or selling Euros and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling hits 10 week high against the Euro, will it reach 1.20? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has had a very positive November, and against the Euro it’s value has moved up from lows of 1.1050 to an inter-bank level of 1.18 yesterday.

This is a considerable jump, one of the largest for the Pound and to put it in monetary terms, a €200,000 purchase is now £10,650 cheaper now the Pound has gained roughly around 7 cents since it’s monthly lows.

This Autumn Budget took place earlier this week and sprung no surprises, which resulted in further sterling strength and gave the currency the impetus to hit 1.18 vs the euro at the inter-bank level.

Whilst there’s a chance the Pound could come crashing back down as currencies do tend to fall alot faster than they rise, there are a number of issues in Europe which could weigh on the Euro’s value and help the Pound make even further gains in the GBP/EUR pair, perhaps pushing it above 1.20.

Next month there will be a referendum in Italy regarding constitutional reform and should the Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi lose the vote, it could be significant as it was his idea to hold the vote.

Austria is also having a referendum in December and next year both Germany and France will have their own, and with the right-leaning populist governments gaining popularity there could be further shocks to the system which could weaken the Euro.

If you are planning a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Autumn Statement Cause Rally for the Pound

Philip Hammond’s Autumn Statement Fuels Pound Rally

Yesterday saw Philip Hammond deliver the Autumn statement. He started the statement by stating Osbourne’s plan to balance the books by 2020 was no longer realistic since the Brexit vote. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) have estimated that borrowing could be in excess of £122bn. The UK growth estimate also dropped sharply by  2.4%. These forecasts however may not have much bearing as everyone is as clueless as a Kardashian at Mensa as to how trade negotiations will pan out.

Mr Hammond did however vow to make Britain resilient post-Brexit and stated our growth forecasts are on par with Germany and better than France. He refrained from throwing the kitchen sink at the problems and is keeping the big guns up his sleeve for a rainy day.

These were some of the key factors of the Speech:

  • £60m a year for Grammar School expansion
  • Increased spending on housing projects, now up to £3.7bn
  • Increase in National Living Wage to £7.50
  • Banning of upfront fees imposed by lettings agents.

 

Uncertainty surrounding Brexit is no surprise, but with Hammond’s practical, honest, no theatrics delivery it gave some form of confidence to investors and we saw GBP/EUR hit 1.18. Personally I think it may be wise to take advantage of current levels as we have the small matter of the high court ruling’s judgement on whether the government gets to vote on article 50, which could cause big problems for the Pound.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to help. I can be your eyes and ears in the market and help you make an informed decision on when to trade. I will be prepared to offer a comparison against any competitor and I am rarely beaten. If you would like to get in touch for a no obligation, trading strategy please contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

Daniel Johnson

Where Next for GBP/EUR Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have spiked during the early part of the trading week, with the pair hitting 1.1770 at this morning’s high.

This provided those clients holding the Pound with some of the best rates they’ve seen in the past few months. This has come in line with a strong run of economic data for the UK, in particular last week’s UK Retail Sales figures, which came in well above market expectation.

We also had UK Prime Minister Theresa May speaking at the CBI conference yesterday and some of her comments regarding our upcoming Brexit were particularly poignant. She tried to calm fears amongst businesses that feared a major change in market conditions following our exit from the EU and she mentioned a possible temporary agreement being put in place, which would run beyond the two-year deadline once Article 50 was triggered.

This boosted market confidence in the UK economy and the Pound, which in turn caused the EUR to weaken.

What we’ve seen is a shift in market perception and as such I feel the EUR may have hit its peak in the short-term. Therefore, those clients holding the single currency should look to take advantage of the huge improvements seen, in particular against Sterling and not gamble on another aggressive spike for the EUR.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk