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Pound to Euro exchange rates and Article 50 (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Euro exchange rates will be beginning to move late this evening UK time as Asian markets begin to start trading as the week begins, and with Article 50 being enacted on Wednesday, I am not imagining a gentle start to the week.

What kind of currency movement is expected in this climate? Everyone has there opinion, but really it is a judge of probability, since this is such a terrifically subjective event to explain in a positive or negative manner, it is impossible to accurately gauge where mass psychology is leaning in the currency markets.

Theresa May’s speech at midday, following the letter she will have sent to the European Council earlier in the day officially instigating the talks for the UK to exit the European Union will be largely where most of the Pound’s value changes will be concentrated that day. So contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss how to monitor it effectively if you are planning an upcoming Euro purchase or sale.

In the run up to the event however, you may see a jumpy market beginning to lose some faith in the Pound. Not necessarily based on a logical look at the situation, but more the memorable panic that the initial vote caused in the market and the stark depreciation in its value last June.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on  jjp@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

What will be the effect on GBP/EUR when Article 50 is triggered? (Daniel Johnson)

I am going to go against the grain on this one, I am of the opinion Sterling will rally following the invocation of Article 50. I would not expect significant gains, but when the dust has settled I expect Sterling to be in a stronger position. The market moves on rumour as well as fact. It is common knowledge Article 50 will be triggered and now we also have the date. It will be no shock when the button is pushed.

I am of the opinion Brexit is already factored in to current GBP/EUR levels.  It is the uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations which is the cause for Sterling weakness. Once Article 50 is triggered and trade negotiations become more apparent I am confident Sterling will rally.

Morgan Stanley analysts  are of the same opinion, stating ” The pound is the most undervalued currency in the world and will return to pre-Brexit levels.”

Although I have my views, would I gamble large sums of money on my hunch?

I know there are many seven figure investors waiting on this event before trading, this will cause volatility on GBP/EUR. The sensible move would be to move in tranches, I would do a smaller tranche before the triggering of Article 50 and the remainder afterwards. After witnessing many putting all their eggs in one basket during the Brexit vote it is always wise to protect yourself to avoid substantial losses.

Euro sellers should be wary if you are hoping for significant improvements, although there are the possibility of short term gains I think the Euro is in for a rough year. Italian bad loans in excess of €360bn, Greek Debt and the  possibility of far right parties gaining power in two general elections. The Euro has potential to take heavy losses.

If you are trading during such a volatile period it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your requirement I will provide a free trading strategy. I am also prepared to provide a comparison against your current provider and I am very confident I will show you a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

What lies ahead for Pound Euro exchange rates in the coming week or so? (Daniel Wright)

Yesterday we were informed that Article 50 will be triggered on Wednesday 29th March – a huge moment in history for the U.K to say the least. The triggering of Article 50 means the process of leaving the EU is officially in motion and unless all 27 EU states agree to extend it then we have a two year deadline to negotiate a deal.

For those with any currency requirements, buying or selling this is also extremely important news and the markets are poised for a sharp move in the next week or so.

We are likely to receive more information on exactly what route we are going take with these negotiations, and we will also see just what the market will do as soon as there is no turning back.

The issue is, you cannot look back historically and see what happened last time we had an event such as this as it has never happened before. In my view we may see one of three reactions, which really goes to show, if you have a requirement coming up even in the next few months you need to let us know about it and be prepared to move.

1) We may see the Pound fall sharply – Sterling exchange rates saw a huge drop when the original referendum vote results were released and now that things are officially moving forward, we may see the same reaction too. The Pound may also drop if the Government goes down the route of a harder Brexit.

2) The Pound may rise – There is the argument that the Pound may have a really solid gain after article 50 is triggered, due to finally having some certainty on what is happening. After months of arguments, challenges and potential hiccups at least the markets now know what the general plan is. Certainty is very important for a currency so you cannot rule out the chance of a Sterling spike.

3) Exchange rates remain in this range with not a lot of movement – We cannot rule this out as the market may have already priced in the triggering of Article 50 and the route the Government will go down. This is possibly the most unlikely of the three however there is always the chance that we will be at the end of next week without any large market movements.

In my opinion I would be surprised not to see a big move in the next week or so, this is a huge moment in history and the markets will have to readjust depending on plans for a hard or soft Brexit, and there will no doubt be a huge number of people poised to move money around the World as and when this actually moves ahead, leading to a great deal of market volatility.

If you have a large currency exchange to make involving buying or selling the Euro then feel free to contact me, Daniel Wright by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Look out for UK inflation

At 9.30 this morning the UK are set to release their latest Consumer Price Index (inflation) numbers. The Bank of England’s 2% target could be exceeded which could cause a small spike in the market for euro buyers. The consensus is for inflation to rise to 2.1%,

Inflation numbers have a major influence on interest rates. If inflation continues to rise the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates which will in turn strengthen the pounds value. It was only last Thursday when Kristin Forbes voted in favour of raising rates and the latest minutes stated other members were sitting on the fence.

In other news Theresa May is set to trigger Article 50 next week and forecasters are split to whether this will strengthen the pound as the triggering will bring certainty to the market or if the pound will fall as there is no going back. Personally I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pound fall which will make purchasing euros become more expensive.

For euro buyers if the market spikes in your favour this morning this may be the best time to buy euros for the next couple of weeks and therefore is seriously worth taking advantage of. If you are purchasing euros short term there is still time to speak to me to outline your options and the process of using the brokerage I work. By doing this I will be able to save you a considerable amount of money on your transfer. Call the trading floor on 01494 787478 and ask for Dayle Littlejohn.

For euro sellers you have come this far, I personally would wait to see how the triggering of Article 50 impacts the pound and then asses your position their after. To outline your position feel free to email me and I will respond with the process drl@currencies.co.uk.

How will the pound react to the triggering of Article 50?

The pound will face greater scrutiny in the coming days as we eagerly await the triggering of Article 50. Theresa May has confirmed today it will be the 29th March that sees the deed finally done. I am expecting a large degree of positivity from the Government and Theresa May which will see the pound rise higher initially before the reality of Brexit hits home and the pound slides. If you have a transfer to consider than making some plans in advance is vital to navigating what is clearly going to be a volatile and uncertain period on exchange rates.

The pound could receive a welcome boost ahead of next week depending on how Inflation and Retail Sales figures pan out this week. After the Bank of England saw one member voting for a hike last week, expectations are that we could well see higher inflation down the line. This would see the pound rise and could see GBPEUR higher in the morning.

I personally believe the market will continue to be challenging for the pound as we get closer to Article 50 being triggered. Overall Brexit has not been welcomed by financial markets and this leads me to believe that once Brexit is actually confirmed to be going ahead sterling will not perform well. Thursday sees the latest Retail Sales which are often volatile but only represent around 6% of GDP so might not be anything to be overly concerned with.

Whilst the Euro may weaken on further uncertainty from the political situation in the Eurozone, the Eurozone economy is performing well and I would not personally be expecting the euro to weaken dramatically too soon. Euro buyers with pounds might wish to start reassessing their position and plan for things to get worse.

If you need to buy or sell GBPEUR in the coming weeks and months then making some plans in advance is I believe sensible. For some personal and proactive assistance to monitor and purchase at your desired exchange rate then please speak to me Jonathan for further information on the markets and our services. I can be reached via email on jmw@currencies.co.uk or calling 01494 787 478 during UK business hours.

 

Short lived gains for Sterling against the Euro and impact of Article 50 (Tom Holian)

The Pound has risen against the Euro during the end of this week after the Bank of England announced that one of its 9 members has voted to raise interest rates.

MPC member Kristin Forbes has expressed concerns over rising inflation levels and this was her main reason for the vote to raise interest rates.

Since last July this is the first time that the Bank of England has disagreed in its voting pattern and this has given Sterling a brief respite after a difficult start to the week vs the Euro.

Unemployment in the UK has shown the best levels in over 30 years but at the same time UK Average Earnings fell so although there are more people in work in the UK their spending power has been reduced and this is likely to cause problems for the Pound in time.

The Dutch elections did little to affect exchange rates as the front runner Mark Rutte’s party ending up winning despite the potential threat of Geert Wilders and his far-Right party. This could persuade voters in France to reject the idea of populism and I think the impact of the French elections will not be noticed until late April.

In the meantime the problem that the Pound is facing is that of uncertainty as to what will happen once Article 50 is triggered.

The likelihood is that we’ll see huge volatility once it has been officially triggered and I think if we reflect back to what happened last June with the Brexit vote the precedent has already been set with large swings on the foreign exchange markets.

The current expectation is that this will happen towards the end of the month so it is extremely important to get yourself organised in preparation for what may happen.

Once Brexit vote was announced GBPEUR rates fell by 9% or the difference of £7,200 on a currency transfer of €100,000 which can make the difference as to whether or not you can afford to buy a property overseas highlighting the fact of using a currency broker.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote.

Having worked in the fx industry since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you make the process simple and stress free.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Sterling on track to post gains vs the Euro this week, will this trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound made most of its gains against the Euro this week during yesterday’s trading session, after the Bank of England surprised markets by suggesting the next interest rate move in the UK would likely be a hike.

The reason behind this expectation can be put down to rising inflation, which is understandable when we consider how the loss in Sterling’s value over the past year is likely to boost the cost of imports. Should the official readings go considerably beyond the Bank of England’s target levels of 2% I expect to see the BoE raise rates which would likely boost the Pounds value.

Yesterday the bank voted to hold rates as they are but there was one member of the 9 voting members that voted in favour of hiking rates. The Pound was boosted by this as it caught the markets off guard along with the talk of hiking rates should inflation continue to climb.

GBP/EUR could have been boosted further had it not been for the comments made by senior member of the European Central Bank (ECB) late yesterday. Ewald Nowotny in an interview said that the ECB could raise the deposit rate before its main refinancing rate and this boosted the Euro and limited Sterling’s gains.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

What next for pound to Euro exchange rates?

The big news on the pound to Euro rates now is when will Theresa May trigger Article 50. With the Bill to trigger Article 50 passed into law the next milepost on the journey is the long awaited use of it. I personally expect that the rate will rise above 1.15 possibly towards 1.17 once the Article 50 is enacted but we could quite easily rates slip back towards 1.10. This is the kind of information that will prove useful to clients monitoring the market for further news and information on spikes in the exchange rate.

The main news at the moment is the triggering of Article 50 and the likelihood of it strengthening or weakening the pound. Most commentators are keen awaiting further information on the market and expectations around this historic event. Some banks are still predicting GBPEUR could drop to parity later in the year. Personally, I believe a lower level of 1.10 is very realistic at some point in the coming weeks once Article 50 is triggered.

We will at this time be presented with lots of new questions. What kind of deal will the UK be able to achieve with the EU? Will the UK’s Brexit bill and Scottish Referendum debates overshadow any positive views of the Brexit? The answers to these questions are not going to manifest quickly but they will remain in the background and I believe put pressure on the pound and future direction for the pound.

The overall likelihood of rates moving higher in the short term is therefore not guaranteed but the market has clearly not made up its mind as to which way this will go. We also have the French election in April, the next few days and weeks could be very volatile for GBPEUR.

If you are looking to make any transfers involving the pound and Euro making some plans in advance is sensible. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Sterling Euro spikes ahead of elections in Holland – Important day for Euro exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

The GBP/EUR exchange rate has spiked in early morning trading, starting the day off almost one cent ahead of where exchange rates were in trading yesterday morning.

We have the Dutch elections over the course of today and any hints on the result may lead to sharpe market movements for Euro exchange rates.

Personally, I feel that the Euro may be in for a tough time in the coming months but for anyone looking to buy Euros with Sterling you must still be very wary of the few banana skins that lie ahead for the Pound too.

With Article 50 on the brink of being triggered there is the chance that Sterling may suffer a little upon its announcement. Due to this having not ever happened before it is hard to look back over history to see what impact this had on the markets previously so to make a real solid prediction is hard, as it may even lead to Sterling spiking up due to finally having some certainty at least as to what may be happening in the U.K.

For anyone with a requirement involving wither buying or selling the Euro the next 24 hours will be key as it is the first of a number of highly important political votes we have in and around Europe over the next few months.

Markets move on economic data and political stability so should we see the far-right party perform well then the Euro may suffer.

If you have a requirement involving either buying of selling the Euro and you would like my personal assistance both with the timing of your exchange and getting the best deal when you come to buy your currency then do feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of your needs and I will be happy to contact you personally.

What will happen to Pound Euro rates following the Dutch elections? (Tom Holian)

The Dutch elections are due to take place today with the result expected to come out later on tonight. One of the front runners is Geert Wilders who has plans to call a referendum for the Netherlands to leave the European Union.

Wilders at this moment is expected to win but it is likely that he will fail to win with a majority and although he may be able to form a coalition it will be difficult for him to carry out his plans for calling a referendum.

The Pound has made some gains this morning against the Euro and the uncertainty of the vote has caused the single currency to weaken against Sterling.

Once this is out of the way the focus will return back to the issue of when Article 50 will be triggered. Brexit secretary David Davis has claimed it will happen at the end of the month but no formal date has yet been announced.

On Saturday the Scottish National Party conference will take place and the likelihood is that Nicola Sturgeon will campaign for another Scottish referendum as the Scots did not want to leave the European Union when the Brexit vote took place.

With the Brexit bill now having been approved it is just a matter of time before Article 50 is triggered and when it finally happens we are likely to see big movement for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make and would like a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers i am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates and also help you with the timing of your trade.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk