The pound has just started to retreat against the Euro after what has been a positive week for GBP EUR. Rates are sitting at just over 1.17 for this pair but there has been resistance at these higher levels.
UK retail sales numbers are released at 09:30 this morning and should create volatility for sterling exchange rates. There have been some mixed signals coming from these numbers in recent months although this morning is expected to see an improvement which could see a short term boost for the pound this morning.
Expect a lot of discussion over Brexit over the weekend as disgraced prime Minister Tony Blair has stated that those who voted Remain should try and persuade those who voted Leave to change their minds and there to be a second referendum. Whether this drives the currency markets is questionable although it does highlight that there is still a desire by many to remain part of the EU and this bigger picture could have a sizeable impact on the price of sterling. What is also very questionable is whether an ex-Prime Minister should be in a position to try and influence or even manipulate the status quo.
Next week sees UK politics return to the forefront after the half term recess. The Brexit Bill will come under scrutiny in the House of Lords this time around where it is expected that amendments will try to be made although it is believed that it will be passed with no changes. Expect volatility as developments unfold as we rapidly approach the time at which Article 50 will be invoked in March. This is such an uncertain period and there is considerable risk the pound could fall lower potentially creating some good opportunities for those selling Euros.
If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on firstname.lastname@example.org
UK unemployment data this morning came out as expected at 4.8% which was also the same as last month but UK Average Earnings have seen a fall.
The headline figure for unemployment is clearly encouraging but with earnings going down this is the reason for the Pound’s fall against the Euro this morning.
According to the Office for National Statistics ‘wage growth remains subdued by historical standards’.
With UK inflation having fallen recently to 1.6% compared to the expectation of 1.8% this has also caused a wobble for the Pound vs the single currency.
During this afternoon we have seen stronger than expected US Retail Sales and this has led to Dollar strength which often leads to Euro weakness but this has not been reflected in GBPEUR exchange rates which have continued to fall during the day.
The problem for Sterling during this time though is not necessarily focused on either positive or negative data but the issue of when Article 50 is due to be triggered. Brexit secretary claimed that the trigger of Article 50 would be invoked ‘by the end of March, sometime during March’ which has only added to the uncertainty.
If you’re looking at selling Euros to buy Sterling the current period could be an opportune time to make your trade.
As we move into next month the Dutch go to the polls as well as the French in April with their final election due in early May which could cause the Euro to weaken especially if we see a challenge to the status quo for both countries.
If you need to buy or sell Euros and would like more information about the various options to you and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.
Tom Holian email@example.com
The pound has been gaining momentum over the last few weeks given euro buyers something to smile about. However with MPs within the House of Commons voting in favour of triggering Article50 in March, Brexit looks likely and therefore a fall in the pounds value looks likely. For euro sellers I believe a window of opportunity will present itself in the upcoming weeks and this should be taken advantage of as the eurozone has problems of its own.
The Greece debt crises has made headline news and the IMF have made it clear change is needed within Greece as they are not prepared to continue to bailout the under performing country. This has put pressure on the European Central Bank as they will have to pick up the pieces. Couple this with key elections within France and German the euro has a tough time ahead.
Marine Le Pen leader of the National Front has made her plans clear and they are for France to leave the EU as soon as possible. The chances of her getting into power were slim however Francois Fillon the favorite to win the election has come under sever pressure recently as it has been reported he has paid his wife €1,000,000 for work she has not completed. If this story is true then Mr Fillon will have no choice but to resign paving a way for the far right party.
For further information in regards to converting GBPEUR feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you firstname.lastname@example.org. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.
Common clients I help on a daily basis are Sole traders, MD or FD of a company, property buyers and sellers. If you are one of the three and are currently using the bank to transfer your currency you need to be made aware that you could be saving money!
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The pound to Euro rate is much higher than many expected at this point of the year, some of the predictions in the market had been centering on rates closer to 1.10 than 1.20. The big question for me now is will this defy expectations further and hit the 1.20 level? Well quite frankly I think this is a very real possibility and clients looking to buy or sell the pound for Euro should be monitoring events carefully. My job is a currency specialist and I help clients looking to make a currency exchange with a very sharp commercial exchange rate and information on market developments to help them with the timing and planning of any currency exchanges.
Just lately the pound has been making further inroads against the Euro but the overall outlook for both currencies is questionable. Most analysts are concerned about the political outlook for both the UK and the Eurozone, it is simply a matter of time before we find out which will suffer the most. I am of the opinion events in the Eurozone will soon take the focus away from events in the UK. Before the Dutch and French elections we have the uncertainty over the Greek debt crisis coming back into the picture, there is a key meeting on the 20th February where we will learn more.
Of course attention will remain on developments in the UK too but I believe that the worry and fear in the UK at present will now take slightly less attention. Consequently I expect the GBPEUR rate to reach 1.20 in the coming weeks as investors fears over developments over Greece and other political concerns weigh on the currency.
If you are planning a currency exchange in the coming weeks then understanding the market and all of your options is critical to getting the best deal. For some positive assistance with the planning and execution of any deals please speak to me Jonathan by emailing email@example.com. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.
The pound continues to be supported against most of the major currencies with no major falls deposit the ongoing uncertainty that surrounds Brexit. The markets appear to be taking the political developments in the House of Commons as welcome news that the process to commence Brexit will now be going ahead. The House of Commons voted overwhelming in favour of proceeding with the bill to invoke Article 50 without any amendments. It would appear that the risks of Brexit are nowhere near as much of a concern as they were 8 months ago.
UK industrial and production numbers are released this morning at 09:30 and high volatility is to be expected. Any steady or event stronger number could see additional support for the pound today. This afternoon sees UK GDP numbers from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research(NIESR). High volatility is expected from this data release as it represents a forecast for the next three months. It is also very highly regarded as an excellent precursor to the official GDP numbers released in the coming weeks.
Any weakening here today which is plausible as we approach Brexit could see sterling weakness. The pound has a good run so far but there are concerns that higher inflation is likely to see growth stall in the coming months. Those clients looking to buy Euros would be wise to make contact as there is considerable risk to the downside with so much going on in these markets at present. The political element has never been more present as far as the pound is concerned to the extent that sterling has recently been regarded as a political currency.
If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on firstname.lastname@example.org
Sterling Euro exchange rates continue to be dominated by what is happening with the ongoing Brexit talks with limited economic data in the UK until Friday the GBPEUR pair is likely to remain relatively range bound.
On Friday both UK Industrial and Manufacturing data is due to be published at 930am so this could cause movement for the Pound once the data is released. However, I think it will be mainly driven by Trade Balance data published at the same time.
With the Pound still close to historical lows vs the US Dollar the UK economy has become cheap for investors over the last few months so there is likely to have been a lot of money ploughed into the UK and therefore I think this set of data could be positive which in turn could send GBPEUR rates in an upwards direction creating some good opportunities to buy Euros with Sterling.
Longer term I think we’ll see some positive movements for the Pound against the single currency as elections begin to take place in the Netherlands in March and France in May.
With such a political shift during 2016 when you consider both Brexit and Trump there is clearly a voice of discontent and a voice for change and I think this could cause the Euro to weaken in the longer term.
However, in the meantime the Pound is likely to remain under pressure against the Euro owing to the uncertainty surrounding Article 50.
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that I am able to not only help you with bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your purchase.
If you have a currency transfer to make and would like more information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.
Tom Holian email@example.com