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Category Archives: Buying or Selling Property?

Will the pound to Euro rate rise or fall on the German election?

Expectations for the Euro are that it could well rise further on the back of the German election but of course there are no guarantees of what lies around the corner. We did expect the pound would rise on the back of the UK election but it did in fact fall and there is always this kind of element of risk with any political situation no matter how likely or unlikely an outcome is.

Therefore if you are selling Euros and hoping the pound will lose value as the euro rises you might be in for a shock although the Theresa May speech on Friday in Florence Italy might also present some surprises too for clients looking to buy or sell pounds against Euros. Market expectations are focusing on the Brexit bill to be paid and it is this which will be one of the key factors in Theresa May’s speech which will determine what kind of reaction the pound makes.

There is a chance sterling could fall sharply like it did last October but there is also a chance it could rise like January of this year. If you have a transfer to make in the future than these two events are the key factors which will create volatility in the coming week, making some plans in advance is my best suggestion.

GBPEUR could rise as much as 2-3 cents but also drop perhaps 4 cents if the pound has a bad time on Theresa May’s speech whilst the Euro does very well on the back of the German election. If you wish to get some information on the rates and potential trends then please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Will GBEPUR remain above 1.10?

The pound to Euro rate has risen against the lines of expectation as we witness the UK Inflation level rising which puts pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Personally I do no think that the BoE will actually raise rates and tomorrow’s Interest rate decision meeting will be crucial to understanding the likelihood of this happening.

All in all there is an expectation that Inflation will continue to rise and this should put pressure on the Bank to raise interest rates, however I do believe the Bank should be more cautious in their approach since raising interest rates will only pile further pressures on the economy in the longer term. I believe at some point this reality will hit home and the pound will fall back down below 1.10 against the Euro.

It will not just be the weak pound which causes issues the euro is itself very strong. So for example the German election on 24th September is likely to make buying Euros even more expensive as Angela Merkel seeks to establish her and continue her role as the Chancellor of the Eurozone’s powerhouse.

If you need to buy Euros with pounds I think current levels represent a very good opportunity in the short term, many analysts are still predicting that rates could fall below parity and I really would be acting with great care if assuming this will not be the case.

For  more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk a brief overview of your position and we can let you know some strategies to help maximise your transaction.

Than you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting in the future.

GBP EUR Rates after ECB Meeting

The pound continues to remain under pressure against the Euro for the two principle reasons of Brexit and a strong Eurozone economy. Brexit remains the single biggest driver for sterling exchange rates and the lack of clarity over where it will end up is keeping sterling at bay. The Great Repeal Bill is being debated in parliament and will be voted on at midnight on Monday next week. This is crucial in terms of getting the legislation through to avoid any legal cliff edge scenarios when Britain formally leaves the EU in March 2019.

Any upsets with the vote should any Conservative party members vote down the bill could see considerable volatility for GBP EUR exchange rates. My view is that the bill should just scrape through without a hitch but it would only take six conservative party members to vote against the party and that could leave the UK in a very precarious position with considerable risk to the downside.

As far as the Euro is concerned the European Central Bank met yesterday and although no tapering to its asset purchasing scheme was made the central bank did signal that it may look to taper later this year. This in theory should help support the Euro going forward and there could be another wave of Euro strength in the not too distant future. Clients looking to buy Euros would be wise to consider securing funds before such action is offered.

There is a ray of hope for clients buying Euros in that the speech from Theresa May expected in about two weeks’ time could have a positive impact on the price of sterling. If the speech is received well there could be gains of 1-2% creating a good window of opportunity for those looking to purchase.

If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

ECB decision fails to inspire the Euro

The European Central Bank (ECB) has today confirmed the expected news that yes ultimately they will be looking to taper their QE program. There is a strong belief that the ECB will in the future withdraw the stimulus that they have been injecting into financial markets which have been essentially propping up the Eurozone. With high unemployment and low growth the ECB were forced to act, is now the right time to be scaling back though?

In essence the ECB have been very positive today which has helped further strengthen the Euro. Expectations on the rates for the coming months are now centered around this withdrawal of the QE program and longer term I expect the Euro will continue to rise against the pound. If you need to buy Euros with pounds getting something done sooner on any improvements is more than likely the best way forward.

The next big news will be 24th September election in Germany, whilst Angela Merkel is expected to win comfortably there are no guarantees and this could cause volatility. The UK election back in June was supposed to be a straightforward one with Theresa May expected to win a strong majority, however she didn’t and the rate fell.

If you have any pound to euro exchanges that you will need to make in the future making plans in advance and working to secure a target level can save you much time and hassle. We are specialist currency brokers here to help with the planning and timing of any currency exchanges that you will need in the future.

For more information at no cost or obligation please feel free to contact me Jonathan Watson directly by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Will GBPEUR hit parity?

This is the big question at the moment on investors lips as the pound continues to struggle and the Euro continues to gain in value. Overall there is an expectation that the pound will eventually rise but with the strength of the pound being inextricably linked to the developments on Brexit, we could be waiting quite some time!

In the absence of any new news the pound will likely continue to remain weak, investors will be very cautious over the UK and the pound until they have some news about just what Brexit means. With some analysts predicting much more of a transitional ‘softer’ Brexit is likely, the outlook for the GBPEUR rate could be much better longer term. However I really do feel it will get worse before it gets better.

I think predictions of parity are probably overdone, the market is already pricing in much worse news for the UK and much better news for the Eurozone. There are now a number of potential twists and turns which could see this rate change quickly, notably the strength of the Euro is not in the ECB’s interest. The European Central Bank might find a very strong Euro actually starts to hamper economic growth and this will lead to wider concerns and potentially undo all the great work that has been achieved in restoring confidence in the Eurozone.

For now the market looks like it will favour the Euro over the pound so sellers of Euros wishing to buy pounds might find that rates continue to get better, however of course, this will not just keep going. Sometimes it is just when the market looks like it is going in one direction that all of a sudden there is a surprise and the rates quickly change.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future than making plans around the possibility of upcoming events is the best way forward. For more information at no cost or obligation on the best way forward for any transactions please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

What can we expect next for the GBPEUR exchange rate?

The pound will likely remain on the weaker side now as the market braces itself for the next developments with Brexit. We know already that the pound is struggling to make many gains, it really does appear that things could get worse before they get better. If you have a transfer to make then getting the best rate is key to maximising your position. So just how can I maximise my position and what should I be doing to ensure I don’t get caught out?

The best way forward in such cases is an understanding of the pending events in the market. This morning the latest Public Sector Net Borrowing data has shown us the poor state o the UK Public Finances. With Government debt standing at 87.5% of GDP the UK is in a very dangerous position. We just aren’t tackling the debt problem, we really need a lift. Whilst net borrowing actually showed a surplus for the first time in 15 years this was because the date for collecting tax fell on a different date this year rather than last year.

Overall the pound to Euro rate is at the mercy from the big divergence between the UK and the Eurozone. Essentially both politically and economically the Eurozone is beating the UK. With the likelihood the UK will continue to be worse off, the GBPEUR rate seems likely to continue to wind down lower.

If you have a transfer buying Euros getting something done sooner than later seems sensible, if you need to sell Euros for pounds seeking out the spikes seems your safest bet. For more help and assistance with any currency exchanges please speak to me Jonathan Watson directly by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you in the future and assisting with any transactions.

Come on the pound!

It is really getting quite annoying now just seeing the pound lose value week after week. I mean don’t get me wrong, we know why it is happening, but it just seems to have a real dampener on the general mood in the UK! Of course this is great news for anyone holding Euros (or another currency) and looking to buy sterling. But with the UK being a net importer (we buy more from overseas than we sell) a weaker pound has a net negative impact on the economy as it makes things more expensive.

This morning at 09.30 am is the latest Inflation report for the UK which could see some surprise movements. Whilst some of a more gambling nature might predict 1.12, I would not be overly surprised to see 1.11 on the back of any surprise good news. However with the likelihood to be a drop in Inflation the pound could easily drop below 1.10 again as are currently trading around 1.1040.

In my opinion I believe any spikes for Euro buyers are well worth capitalising on because the likelihood of sterling dropping remains very high. Overall the market is likely to drop more than it will rise in my opinion, the outlook before was the pound would eventually rise. However in my opinion the outlook has now changed and there is a stronger chance the pound will slide.

If you have a transfer to make in the future then making some plans in the advance is very sensible. Today and tomorrow’s UK data could be key to the short term movements, I believe the best short term strategy is capitalising on any spikes.

If you have a transfer to make in the coming months and weeks please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

What can we expect next for GBPEUR?

The GBPEUR exchange rate has been sliding ever since the UK election result and quite frankly there has been very little on offer to help any Euro buyers, the only news to help was the prospect of the UK raising interest rates. This has now been firmly quashed by the Bank of England and the only thing really for Euro buyers to look forward to is something unexpected. If you need to buy Euros with pounds I think you need to be carefully analysing your situation to work out what will suit you best.

Tomorrow is a host of very important UK data including the latest Industrial and Manufacturing data which will be released around 09.30 am. There is also Trade Balance data due at this time, the overall impression is these releases could lightly help the pound since the weaker pound does actually help these areas of the economy. However overall it is almost clutching at straws for Euro buyers to expect anything dramatic here and it would not be too surprising to see the rate lower.

With Euro buyers lucky to be getting rates above 1.10 the prospect of lower levels is high. A continuing strengthening of the Eurozone economy plus continued political certainty in the Eurozone paints a fairly positive picture for the Eurozone in the coming weeks and months. The German election looks like it will only further support the Euro, Merkel is well ahead in the polls and there more right wing elements in German politics are not getting anywhere near the support to mount a serious worrying challenge for the Euro.

All in all any clients looking to buy Euros should be making some serious plans as their position could easily get worse. The only reason GBPEUR is a little better for Euro buyers today is the the threat of nuclear war! This has strengthened the US dollar and pulled EURUSD down which has softened the Euro against the pound.

It is a mark of how tough times are for Euro buyers that a North Korean nuclear war is the only reason to be positive today.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

GBP/EUR – Is parity a possibility? (Daniel Johnson)

MPC vote change weakens Sterling

Sterling continues to fall in value against the Euro. The latest catalyst in it’s fall, the UK interest rate decision. The interest rate is closely linked to inflation. Inflation is currently a major concern for the UK at one point bordering on 3%. Since then we have seen a drop to 2.6%, some believe this to be a negative for the UK economy. I however disagree, inflation is only beneficial if average wage growth is moving at a similar pace, it currently isn’t sitting at 1.8%. This is when there is the danger consumers will cease to spend at the same rate due to inflated prices and income not rising at the same speed.  This does have the potential to cause a recession.

The Bank of England (BOE) have stated there is the possibility of a rate hike should inflation rise above 3%, so the fall to 2.6% was seen as negative to investors and Sterling has fallen as a result. The previous rate vote from the monetary policy committee (MPC) came in at 5-3, with three members on favour of a hike. Since then Kristin Ford has left the MPC and has been replaced by Silvana Tenreyo who voted to hold rates. The vote now at 6-2 did little to help the pound against the Euro.

The Euro zone is actually experiencing wide spread growth both in industry sectors and geographically. Mario Draghi the head of the ECB  has even hinted at tapering the current QE program. QE is essentially pumping money into an economy to stimulate growth. It is currently set at €80bn a month if there was a reduction expect a substantial rise in Euro value.

In order for Sterling to rally we need a stable government and a clear Brexit stance. Although a rise in inflation could force the BOE’s hand on a rate hike it is not a healthy move for the economy. I am not of the opinion we are not going to see parity short term, but there is room for further falls. You need to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return.

If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

What can we expect for the rest of the week on the GBPEUR exchange rate?

Tomorrow is a vital day for the pound to Euro exchange rate as we get closer to understanding a bit more news form the Bank of England. Expectations are for a very busy day for the pound as markets digest exactly what we can expect from the outcome. There is a belief in some quarters the pound could rise rise but ultimately the recent fall in Inflation I feel makes any positive news for sterling much less likely. The rates could move quickly in either direction therefore making being able to react quickly very important to securing the best rates.

To help clients looking to buy or sell the pound we can monitor the rates very closely to try to gauge just when might be the best time to make the deal. There is an overall belief longer term the UK are more likely to raise interest rates, tomorrow we will get the latest taste of this from the Bank of England. If you have an exchange to make in the future this information is vital to helping you get the best deal.

Not only is it the UK’s interest rate decision it is also the latest Quarterly Inflation report and this will present the market with fresh news on the most likely future direction for UK interest rates and therefore the pound. If you need to make an exchange this news will set the tone for the coming weeks so it might be worthwhile getting in touch if you are looking for any information to help you make an informed decision on when to execute the deal.

Thank you for reading and please let me know if there is anything happening I might be able to help with or you wish to discuss. Please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.