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Category Archives: Euro

Will the pound to Euro rate rise or fall on the German election?

Expectations for the Euro are that it could well rise further on the back of the German election but of course there are no guarantees of what lies around the corner. We did expect the pound would rise on the back of the UK election but it did in fact fall and there is always this kind of element of risk with any political situation no matter how likely or unlikely an outcome is.

Therefore if you are selling Euros and hoping the pound will lose value as the euro rises you might be in for a shock although the Theresa May speech on Friday in Florence Italy might also present some surprises too for clients looking to buy or sell pounds against Euros. Market expectations are focusing on the Brexit bill to be paid and it is this which will be one of the key factors in Theresa May’s speech which will determine what kind of reaction the pound makes.

There is a chance sterling could fall sharply like it did last October but there is also a chance it could rise like January of this year. If you have a transfer to make in the future than these two events are the key factors which will create volatility in the coming week, making some plans in advance is my best suggestion.

GBPEUR could rise as much as 2-3 cents but also drop perhaps 4 cents if the pound has a bad time on Theresa May’s speech whilst the Euro does very well on the back of the German election. If you wish to get some information on the rates and potential trends then please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

GBP EUR Rates Head Towards 1.14

The pound has seen yet another great day making strong gains across the board including the Euro. GBP EUR exchange rates reached a high of 1.1396 earlier today before coming of the highs.

Monetary Policy Committee member Vlieghe said today that interest rates will need to rise more than once if the economic recovery develops as expected. His comments reinforced the view that the Bank of England means business in terms of raising interest rates. There has been some suggestion that there could be some jawboning going on to try and influence the exchange rate.

However I do not support this view as the benefits from such a policy seem too minimal for such a coordinated stance from the central bank.
As such the pound should be relatively well supported after what has been a seismic shift in policy from the Bank of England this week.

Clients looking to sell Euros have seen a brutal week and the question now is whether the Euro will strengthen against the pound. Those clients may wish to consider moving into sterling sooner rather than late to avoid further disappointment. A major speech from UK Prime Minister Theresa May next week could see considerable market volatility. Any improvement in the outlook in the Brexit negotiations could see sterling find additional support. However any suggestion that Britain is prepared to walk away from the negotiations could see a sharp fall for the pound. This cannot be ruled out considering that the negotiations ended badly a few weeks back.

If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Will GBEPUR remain above 1.10?

The pound to Euro rate has risen against the lines of expectation as we witness the UK Inflation level rising which puts pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Personally I do no think that the BoE will actually raise rates and tomorrow’s Interest rate decision meeting will be crucial to understanding the likelihood of this happening.

All in all there is an expectation that Inflation will continue to rise and this should put pressure on the Bank to raise interest rates, however I do believe the Bank should be more cautious in their approach since raising interest rates will only pile further pressures on the economy in the longer term. I believe at some point this reality will hit home and the pound will fall back down below 1.10 against the Euro.

It will not just be the weak pound which causes issues the euro is itself very strong. So for example the German election on 24th September is likely to make buying Euros even more expensive as Angela Merkel seeks to establish her and continue her role as the Chancellor of the Eurozone’s powerhouse.

If you need to buy Euros with pounds I think current levels represent a very good opportunity in the short term, many analysts are still predicting that rates could fall below parity and I really would be acting with great care if assuming this will not be the case.

For  more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk a brief overview of your position and we can let you know some strategies to help maximise your transaction.

Than you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting in the future.

Where next for Sterling Euro exchange rates? (Tom Holian)

The Pound made some very positive gains vs the single currency on Friday trading session as the UK posted some better than expected Manufacturing data.

The figures saw an increase owing to the low value of Sterling exchange rates which encouraged a huge amount of overseas orders.

This caused the Pound vs Euro exchange rate to hit as high as 1.0970 yesterday but I think the gains will be short lived as the topic of Brexit will continue to dominate the headlines.

At the moment we are at a stalemate as no clear amount has been decided as to how much the ‘Divorce Bill’ will be. There are suggestions of between EUR60bn-EUR100bn but as yet nothing has been agreed so we are still in limbo.

Next week there are two key data releases for the UK in the form of UK inflation data on Tuesday followed by unemployment data on Wednesday.

Both sets of data are likely to cause volatility for the Pound Euro exchange rates so if you’re considering making a currency transfer keep a close eye out on both announcements.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP EUR Rates after ECB Meeting

The pound continues to remain under pressure against the Euro for the two principle reasons of Brexit and a strong Eurozone economy. Brexit remains the single biggest driver for sterling exchange rates and the lack of clarity over where it will end up is keeping sterling at bay. The Great Repeal Bill is being debated in parliament and will be voted on at midnight on Monday next week. This is crucial in terms of getting the legislation through to avoid any legal cliff edge scenarios when Britain formally leaves the EU in March 2019.

Any upsets with the vote should any Conservative party members vote down the bill could see considerable volatility for GBP EUR exchange rates. My view is that the bill should just scrape through without a hitch but it would only take six conservative party members to vote against the party and that could leave the UK in a very precarious position with considerable risk to the downside.

As far as the Euro is concerned the European Central Bank met yesterday and although no tapering to its asset purchasing scheme was made the central bank did signal that it may look to taper later this year. This in theory should help support the Euro going forward and there could be another wave of Euro strength in the not too distant future. Clients looking to buy Euros would be wise to consider securing funds before such action is offered.

There is a ray of hope for clients buying Euros in that the speech from Theresa May expected in about two weeks’ time could have a positive impact on the price of sterling. If the speech is received well there could be gains of 1-2% creating a good window of opportunity for those looking to purchase.

If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

ECB decision fails to inspire the Euro

The European Central Bank (ECB) has today confirmed the expected news that yes ultimately they will be looking to taper their QE program. There is a strong belief that the ECB will in the future withdraw the stimulus that they have been injecting into financial markets which have been essentially propping up the Eurozone. With high unemployment and low growth the ECB were forced to act, is now the right time to be scaling back though?

In essence the ECB have been very positive today which has helped further strengthen the Euro. Expectations on the rates for the coming months are now centered around this withdrawal of the QE program and longer term I expect the Euro will continue to rise against the pound. If you need to buy Euros with pounds getting something done sooner on any improvements is more than likely the best way forward.

The next big news will be 24th September election in Germany, whilst Angela Merkel is expected to win comfortably there are no guarantees and this could cause volatility. The UK election back in June was supposed to be a straightforward one with Theresa May expected to win a strong majority, however she didn’t and the rate fell.

If you have any pound to euro exchanges that you will need to make in the future making plans in advance and working to secure a target level can save you much time and hassle. We are specialist currency brokers here to help with the planning and timing of any currency exchanges that you will need in the future.

For more information at no cost or obligation please feel free to contact me Jonathan Watson directly by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Mario Draghi to influence pound vs euro exchange rates

Tomorrow afternoon the European Central Bank will release their latest interest rate decision alongside the Presidents speech. No change in interest rates is expected therefore rates should remain at 0%, however it’s the statement by Mario Draghi that could have a major impact on pound v euro exchange rates.

Many economist believe there is a chance that the President could elaborate on when the ECB will taper the quantitative easing (QE) program. QE is essentially when a central bank pumps money into the economy in a bid to stimulate growth.  As you would expect if Draghi hints to a date in the near future this should provide further strength for the euro.

However the problem I think the ECB have, is that the euro is so strong at present and if the ECB cut the QE program the euro is only going to get stronger which could have a knock on effect on inflation. It would be a disaster for the ECB if the QE program was cut and inflation dropped back below 1%.

Personally I believe the President will continue to keep his cards close to his chest and the event may not spring any surprises. However for euro buyers this week, I would not take the risk and trade some point today or tomorrow morning.

For further information in regards to converting GBPEUR feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

Common clients I help on a daily basis are Sole traders, MD or FD of a company, property buyers and sellers. If you are one of the three and are currently using the bank to transfer your currency you need to be made aware that you could be saving money!

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to a free quote email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Will the Pound Hit Parity?

After a bad week for sterling exchange rates the pound has tumbled further against the Euro after the third round of Brexit negotiations ended badly yesterday. There appears to be a lack of agreement between the British exit bill and any potential future trade relationship whilst the EU are not willing to discuss the latter until “sufficient progress” has been made on the divorce settlement. The lack of certainty is now causing concerns for businesses and individuals and this is reflecting in the weaker price of sterling. GBP EUR is currently sitting between 1.08 & 1.09.

A stalemate has come about between the British and EU sides in this negotiation and the problem for the pound is that the negotiations don’t recommence until mid-September which leaves us with a couple of weeks in this uncertain period. Those clients looking to sell Euros could see some even better opportunities in these next few weeks although my long term view is that he pound should rally.

With no UK interest rate rises from the Bank of England in the offing this too is another factor why the pound should remain under pressure. Although there were some noises by one member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Michael Saunders to consider moving sooner to beat rising inflation it will not probably be enough to persuade the other members especially with all the Brexit uncertainty.

The EU meanwhile is looking to taper its asset purchasing scheme possibly as soon as September which should help strengthen the Euro further. Those clients looking to buy Euros would be wise to consider moving sooner rather than later as the idea of parity could very easily become a reality.

If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Forecast – Where Next for the Pound? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling found some support against its Euro counterpart during Wednesday’s trading, with GBP/EUR rates moving back above 1.08.

The Pound has hit a high of 1.0885 this morning, before retracting slightly ahead of the release of the Eurozone Unemployment Rate at 10am. With a figure of 9.1% unemployment predicted and likely factored into the current Euro value, we can expect additional volatility on GBP/EUR rates later this morning if the official figure is released varies.

Those clients holding Sterling should be looking at this improvement as a silver lining, following weeks of negative downturns.

As regular readers will be aware much of Sterling’s demise can be attributed to the complete lack of uncertainty surrounding the UK economic future in the wake of Brexit. With multiple media reports indicating a disjointed government and inept tactical approach to Brexit negotiations, investor confidence in the Pound seems to have diminished rapidly.

Whilst the Pound has found some much needed support around the current levels, the current outlook remains fairly bleak and for this reason I would be extremely tempted to take advantage of the current levels.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Will GBPEUR hit parity?

This is the big question at the moment on investors lips as the pound continues to struggle and the Euro continues to gain in value. Overall there is an expectation that the pound will eventually rise but with the strength of the pound being inextricably linked to the developments on Brexit, we could be waiting quite some time!

In the absence of any new news the pound will likely continue to remain weak, investors will be very cautious over the UK and the pound until they have some news about just what Brexit means. With some analysts predicting much more of a transitional ‘softer’ Brexit is likely, the outlook for the GBPEUR rate could be much better longer term. However I really do feel it will get worse before it gets better.

I think predictions of parity are probably overdone, the market is already pricing in much worse news for the UK and much better news for the Eurozone. There are now a number of potential twists and turns which could see this rate change quickly, notably the strength of the Euro is not in the ECB’s interest. The European Central Bank might find a very strong Euro actually starts to hamper economic growth and this will lead to wider concerns and potentially undo all the great work that has been achieved in restoring confidence in the Eurozone.

For now the market looks like it will favour the Euro over the pound so sellers of Euros wishing to buy pounds might find that rates continue to get better, however of course, this will not just keep going. Sometimes it is just when the market looks like it is going in one direction that all of a sudden there is a surprise and the rates quickly change.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future than making plans around the possibility of upcoming events is the best way forward. For more information at no cost or obligation on the best way forward for any transactions please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.