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Tag Archives: best exchange rates

Sterling Tumbles As Euro Strength Increases (Ben Fletcher)

Today has seen the GBP/EUR rate fall to the lowest level in 8 years, taking us back to just after the financial crisis. This was mainly down to the record breaking Purchasing Managers Index in data coupled with the Eurozone’s reading. What is becoming apparent is there is considerable optimism for the Euro and investors are investing their funds aggressively in the single market currency.

Working for the brokerage Foreign Currency Direct, many of my clients will ask if the rate is going to continue to fall and in short I believe the answer is yes. There has been a major downward trend for the GBP/EUR rate over the past month and whilst I think parity is unlikely there could be a few more cents to drop.

Mario Draghi who is the President of the European Central Bank will speak on Friday and could well be set to acknowledge the Euros strength. If he then goes on to suggest the current quantitative easing measures in the Eurozone could be reduced, there could be major optimism for the Euro.

The one risk to all this Euro strength is that it could have a longer term effect on the EU economy. If the GBP/EUR rate does remain at this level then the amount of Brits going to Europe next year will decrease, there will be significantly less tourism whilst there could be a influx of tourists to the UK boosting the economy. Some of these consequences could eventually be felt by the Eurozone and the ECB might be wary to try and reduce the Euro strength.

If you do have a question with regards to my forecast please get in touch. When you come to moving large sums of money a movement of a cent can often relate to a significant difference in your returns. Helping you formulate a strategy could make sure you’re in the best position to exchange currency when the market is in your favor, please contact me at brf@currencies.co.uk

GBP to EUR rate drops despite positive news for the Pound, is this a sign? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate crucially hit a new 8-year low today, after hitting 1.0898 at one stage during today’s session.

This is despite some positive news for the UK economy as today it was announced that UK public finances showed a surprise surplus of £184m in July, which is the first time the figure has been in the black (in July) since 2002, with many expecting the figure to show a deficit.

Despite this the Pound has still fallen and at the time of writing the GBP to EUR pair are trading just over the 1.09 mark. We’re still awaiting the 5 Brexit papers which will provide us with an overview of the Brexit plan and I think that this could move the GBP/EUR pair if the news is particularly positive or negative.

On Thursday there will be the release of UK GDP figures at 9.30am for the month of July, the expectation is for 1.7% so again expect any deviations from this figure to result in movement between the pair.

If you are planning a currency exchange and would like to be kept updated regarding any short-term price movements, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Sterling Gains Against the Euro (Ben Fletcher)

The GBP/EUR rate moved back above the 1.10 level today, however dropped below that point at the close of business. The main reason for Sterling gaining against the Euro today was the good news regarding wage growth, which following a no change to inflation yesterday helped gain back the lost ground. Tomorrow there could be even further volatility with the latest inflation data for the Eurozone set to be released.

Eurozone Inflation

There has been much speculation from analysts over the future decisions of the European Central Bank and if they will taper the current Eurozone stimulus. There are thoughts that the current bond buying program will start to be tapered reducing the amount of bonds purchased by the ECB each month from €80bn.

In turn this will then lead to hope that the European Central Bank could cut interest rates. If that was to be the case then that would be a main driver for the GBP/EUR rate down to a parity level. In my opinion the Eurozone which has been booming form a economic perspective could be set to slow down a little. Its unsustainable for continuous strength to just keep happening, but inflation could well be the first indication of all being not what it seems. I would not be surprised to see the GBP/EUR rate back in the mid 1.10’s tomorrow around midday.

If you do have a question with regards to my forecast or have a different question please get in touch. When you come to moving large sums of money a movement of a cent can often relate to a significant difference in your returns. Helping you formulate a strategy could make sure you’re in the best position to exchange currency when the market is in your favor, please contact me Ben Fletcher at brf@currencies.co.uk

Quiet End to the Week for Sterling (Ben Fletcher)

There are no new data releases to end the week today which is likely to mean a fairly quiet end to the week. The GBP/EUR rate sits just above the 1.10 level and next week there is a possibility in my opinion that the rate could move back towards the 1.12 level.

The latest Consumer Price Index will be released next week, which I think will be up from the previous reading of 2.6%. CPI which is a key indicator for inflation is one of the last hopes for Sterling strength. If inflation rises over the next few months then the Bank of England may be forced into a interest rate hike. Over the last few months members of the Central Bank have talked down the chances of a hike, but if inflation rises above 3% they’re hand may be forced.

Next week there will also be a magnitude of EU data and other releases for the UK, which will guarantee plenty of volatility. However Tuesday will be the main day to look out for with the inflation data release. If the data is positive I believe Sterling could gain some momentum helping the rate moves above 1.11 and back towards the 1.12 region, this would be a 2 week high if it happened.

If you do have a question with regards to currency markets I am well positioned to be of assistance to you. Please send me a brief email outlining what you’re looking to do and I will be happy to discuss with you. When you come to moving large sums of money a movement of a cent can often relate to a significant difference in your returns. Helping you formulate a strategy could make sure you’re in the best position to exchange currency when the market is in your favor, please contact me at brf@currencies.co.uk

Sterling begins a busy day on the back foot, will the downward trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has started the day on the back foot this morning as it’s dropped against all major currency pairs this morning.

At 9.30am there will be the release of Manufacturing and Industrial data from the UK which will give us an idea of how those sectors of the UK economy are performing, and then later this afternoon there will be a release of GDP data from one of the UK’s most prominent think tanks.

The Pound is coming under pressure after rumours of the Brexit negotiations beginning badly,  and talk of a large Brexit bill isn’t doing the Pound any favours either.

The next few weeks will be interesting as since the Brexit vote the Pound to Euro exchange rate hasn’t fallen below 1.10, so if the downward pressure on the Pound continues we will soon find out whether 1.10 will continue to act as a support level. Those with a currency requirement involving the selling of Pounds and converting them into Euros who look to avoid risk may wish to consider the current levels in case the rate continues to fall.

The Euro has benefited well from the weakness in the US Dollar as of late, so it’s worth noting that the GBP/EUR weakness is down to Euro strength as well as Pound weakness.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/EUR – Is parity a possibility? (Daniel Johnson)

MPC vote change weakens Sterling

Sterling continues to fall in value against the Euro. The latest catalyst in it’s fall, the UK interest rate decision. The interest rate is closely linked to inflation. Inflation is currently a major concern for the UK at one point bordering on 3%. Since then we have seen a drop to 2.6%, some believe this to be a negative for the UK economy. I however disagree, inflation is only beneficial if average wage growth is moving at a similar pace, it currently isn’t sitting at 1.8%. This is when there is the danger consumers will cease to spend at the same rate due to inflated prices and income not rising at the same speed.  This does have the potential to cause a recession.

The Bank of England (BOE) have stated there is the possibility of a rate hike should inflation rise above 3%, so the fall to 2.6% was seen as negative to investors and Sterling has fallen as a result. The previous rate vote from the monetary policy committee (MPC) came in at 5-3, with three members on favour of a hike. Since then Kristin Ford has left the MPC and has been replaced by Silvana Tenreyo who voted to hold rates. The vote now at 6-2 did little to help the pound against the Euro.

The Euro zone is actually experiencing wide spread growth both in industry sectors and geographically. Mario Draghi the head of the ECB  has even hinted at tapering the current QE program. QE is essentially pumping money into an economy to stimulate growth. It is currently set at €80bn a month if there was a reduction expect a substantial rise in Euro value.

In order for Sterling to rally we need a stable government and a clear Brexit stance. Although a rise in inflation could force the BOE’s hand on a rate hike it is not a healthy move for the economy. I am not of the opinion we are not going to see parity short term, but there is room for further falls. You need to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return.

If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Will ‘Super Thursday’ result in a big move for the Pound to Euro exchange rate? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is currently trading within a very thin range of just 25 pips, although throughout the day this range could certainly be tested.

Today is being dubbed as ‘Super Thursday’ due to the large volume of data due out of the UK today, and I expect the UK to be in full focus throughout the day as investors await the data releases which start at 9.30am.

The first data release will cover sentiment within the UK services sector, which is an important release due to the services sector making up such a large part of the UK economy. A disappointing release is likely to result in Sterling weakness due to the importance of the sector.

Perhaps today’s most important news release will be around lunchtime today when the Bank of England’s Interest Rate Decision will be released. Although I’m not expecting there to be a change, I think that if the voting patterns sway from the previous 5-3 vote in favour of keeping rates on hold there will be movement for the GBP/EUR pair.

The Speech afterwards from the BoE governor Mark Carney is also likely to create movement for Sterling exchange rates, especially if there are any allusions to future monetary policy changes.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Sterling has little chance of Strengthening (Daniel Johnson)

Pound Problems

Sterling is in a terrible spot at present, languishing in the 1.11s on GBP/EUR at present. There are so many catalysts for Sterling’s weakness it will be very difficult to see any significant rally. We are now starting to witness the damage caused by the vote to leave the EU. Inflation in the UK has been on a rapid rise of late hitting 2.9%. There was the chance that the Bank of England were going to raise interest rates should the rise continue. The rumors of a rate hike had caused a bout of Sterling strength, but the latest figures saw a fall to 2.6% and the chances of a hike were diminished and the pound fell in value as a result.

Personally, I feel a rate hike is not a solution to the inflation problem and a drop in the data brings it closer to average wage growth at 1.8%. Which is a good thing. If average wage growth does not keep up with inflation, consumers will be more reluctant to spend and the UK could face a recession.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently downgraded the UK’s growth forecast which has not helped matters. Fifteen conservative MPs have signed a document supporting a vote of no confidence in Theresa May’s role. Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question.

Perhaps the biggest problem is the lack of direction in regards to Brexit negotiations, Hard or Soft Brexit. No doubt compromises will have to be made.

UK GDP Data 

UK GDP data is due in this morning at 9.30 and could cause volatility on GBP/EUR, expectations are for a small increase. If there is a fall Sterling could lose further value.

If you have a currency trade to perform  I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have confidence knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

 

Mario Draghi and ECB To Dictate GBP/EUR Rate (Ben Fletcher)

Tomorrow could be one of the most volatile days in a short while with regards to the GBP/EUR rate. The European Central bank will reveal their latest interest rate decision, which is unexpected to change. However President Mario Draghi will speak afterwards and provide insights to the current and future economic conditions. There has been multiple different and some conflicting views from the ECB with regards to future policy and depending on what Draghi says tomorrow is likely to dictate the market.

If Draghi suggests there will be a tapering of the current economic stimulus then the GBP/EUR may fall below 1.12 once more providing a great window of opportunity for Euro sellers. Alternatively if the President argues that there still needs to be a heavy program in place then the Euro may weaken helping the GBP/EUR rate back towards the 1.14 level.

In total honesty tomorrow is a little bit of a gamble which will certainly have winners and losers. Sterling has been taking a beating of late with so much uncertainty and after the inflation data showed a slowdown optimism for a interest rate hike in the UK seems to have died off. Bad news for the Euro cold present one of the only methods in the short term for the GBP/EUR rate to rise. With that in mind nay movement towards the 1.15 level should be treated a scarce and acted upon.

When the markets are this volatile there will always be spikes and drops, making timing a transfer vital to maximise your funds. If you have any questions with my forecast above or would like to simply discuss an upcoming requirement you have please send me an email to brf@currencies.co.uk.

I would be happy to share my thoughts with you and I may be able to offer a viable solution to help you complete a trade. When looking to complete currency transfers small movements in rates can make the difference of hundreds if not thousands of pounds. 

 

Inflation data causes Sterling weakness (Daniel Johnson)

UK Inflation influences GBP/EUR

Investors are showing concern at the rapid rise in inflation. The uncertainty regarding Brexit negotiations has made  GBP/EUR drop to 1.1170 of late. The weak value of Sterling has caused imports to become more expensive. Importers are then raising the value of their goods up and these price increases are then passed on to the consumer. If consumers become reluctant to pay these higher prices this is when we could see a slow down in the UK economy. It is important to keep an eye on average wage growth, if average wage growth is not rising at the same rate as inflation there could be trouble ahead.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was  released yesterday. CPI is a is a key barometer for inflation. Inflation dropped from 2.9% to 2.6% and the pound fell against the euro as a result. Although sterling fell in value following the data release, I am of the view a drop in inflation is a good for the UK economy as  the closer to average wage growth (currently 1.8%) the better for the UK economy. The drop in Sterling can be attributed to the fact a rate hike is now unlikely as the rise in inflation was the reason members of the MPC were considering a hike. I am not convinced a rate hike would be the cure for the problem. In order to for the pound to strengthen substantially the  stance on Brexit needs to be made clear and we need a firm government in place without constant threats to Theresa May’s position.

A  soft Brexit could still be a possibility with the freedom of movement of people required in order to have free trade. There will be need to be compromise,  a big change  to the previous “have your cake and eat it” plan.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.