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Tag Archives: ecb

Euro begins to rise as markets await ECB meeting, will the ECB taper its stimulus programme today? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is losing some ground this morning as financial markets await the ECB’s meeting later this afternoon.

It will begin at 12.45pm UK time and many are predicting that Mario Draghi may announce tapering plans today. This would be considered a positive for the Euro and I would personally expect to see the EUR to GBP rate improve if this plan is announced.

On the other hand, those hoping for a stronger Pound should keep an eye on what’s said by Draghi as if the subject isn’t touched on, on Draghi suggests that there are no short term plans to taper the current quantitative easing programme I think we can expect to see the Pound climb.

Yesterday morning there was some disappointing data out for the UK as services sector PMI came out below expectations and hit a 11-month low. This sector is very important for the UK as it covers roughly around 80% of the UK economy.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding any short term price movements between the pair in question do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

When will Pound to Euro rate break the range today?

The pound to Euro rate has been trading in a very tight range having not even moved a cent between the high and the low in the last week! This is between 1.1355 and 1.1418. Even if we stretch back to the the last few weeks we have only been trading in a 2 cent range of 1.1270-1.1460. So what is happening and what will happen next? Well with excessive amounts of volatility in recent months and weeks the market has found a level of comfort with no real fresh news on the key topics driving both the pound and Euro. If you are buying or selling the pound and Euro say following an overseas property sale then every cent can make differences of thousands of pounds. Timing and planning is everything!

Today is the European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts which will give us further insight to recent commentary and decisions by the ECB. The main news is that the ECB has been much more positive about the economic outlook in the Eurozone, this confidence has fed through into the Euro causing it to rise to fresh 2017 highs against the pound and the US dollar.

There is a fight between the pound and euro at present over which central bank will scale back on their monetary easing first with the Bank of England debating an interest rate rise and the ECB considering scaling back their QE (Quantitative Easing) program.

History tells us that when markets are very quiet there can be volatility building up. Financial markets were all at low levels of volatility before pretty much every major crash in the last 100 years. I do not think today’s data will change the current picture much but if you are looking to buy or sell pounds with Euro making some plans about what might happen today, next week and in the future is very sensible.

For more information on the latest trends and forecasts relevant to your personal situation please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as an Associate Director assisting both private clients and business with the planning and execution of their currency exchanges. I can help with the timing and management of your transfer to help you maximise the rate and minimise the risk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Best rates to sell Euros into Pounds in 2017 (Tom Holian)

The Euro has got to its best level to buy Pounds since November as the Pound has continued to weaken owing to the uncertainty of what is happening in both UK government and the Brexit negotiations.

The Tories have finally come to an agreement with the DUP but this has done little to help the Pound as we continue to see GBPEUR exchange rates struggle.

Yesterday Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has called upon British banks to raise their capital requirements in order to avoid the risks of a downside to the market. The figure is as high as £11bn which has caused a bit of concern for the sector and this has resulted in a fall for the Pound.

The Pound also fell against the Euro after European Central President Mario Draghi hinted that an interest rate hike in Europe may be coming at some point in the future.

He has suggested that growth in the Eurozone is not as dependent on as much stimulus used previously which means he could be looking at also reducing the taper that is happening every month.

Consumer and Business Confidence data in both Germany and Italy have also come out better than expected and if other countries within the Eurozone reflect the same tone then this could strengthen the Euro further against the Pound.

Overall, I think we’ll see further losses for Sterling vs the Euro in the short term as we are still politically unstable and we don’t know what will happen next with the Brexit talks.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident not only of being able to offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer.

If you need to buy or sell Euros and would like further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

How will the pound to euro rate react to the UK election?

The pound to Euro rate is looking ever volatile as we get closer to the UK election with the market trying to find its feet according to the latest trends and themes. Overall the belief is that Theresa May will win and this will see the pound rise higher and closer towards the higher teens. I think 1.20 is out of the question but there is a strong likelihood we could see the rates jump up higher which would present some good fresh opportunities to buy Euros.

Overall I believe that the market is pricing in a higher chance of a hung parliament and a Theresa May victory than will actually occur. This is because markets go their fingers burnt over the EU Referendum and Trump. Therefore markets want to price in the possibility of an unexpected outcome no matter how unlikely it is. If you have a transfer to make in the future making some plans in advance is sensible to try and limit your exposure to the markets.

Overall the big surprise would be losses for the Tories and for Theresa May to lose the election. The market must now price in this possibility but it is highly unlikely to materialise in my opinion. Therefore if you have a transfer to make this week or next or beyond making some plans in advance is crucial to getting the best deal and most from the market.

For more information on the likelihood of an unexpected shock and to receive some assistance with the timing and planning of any exchanges please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more. I have worked helping clients move funds internationally for almost ten years and working as an Associate Director for the one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokerages am well placed to offer some practical support with any transfers.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP/EUR Rates Hit 1.18! (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have spiked to 1.18 during Tuesday’s trading, with the pair hitting 1.18 at today’s high. This has provided those clients holding Sterling with some of the best rates they’ve had over the past few months, with the Pound gaining over four cents at the high over the past few weeks.

Whilst Sterling has clearly found a foothold in the market, is investor confidence high enough to drive the Pound forward further or have we seen reach a peak in the short-term?

It is a difficult question to dissect, as the economic and social problems within the Eurozone are likely to manifest themselves over the coming months. The Italian referendum is a key sticking point and a negative outcome will likely change the political landscape and as such, cause further uncertainty in one of the Eurozone’s key economies.

We also need to consider the political unrest spreading across Europe and if this year’s Brexit decision and US election results are anything to go by then who knows which parties may be in power in Eurozone strongholds by the end of 2017.

There is also a distinct possibility that European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi will announce next month that they are extending their current monetary policy (QE) programme, beyond the current March 2017 cut-off date. If this is indeed the case, expect EUR weakness off the back of this decision.

On the flip side, you have to look at the on-going uncertainty surrounding the UK economy and with the Supreme Court ruling in December regarding how Article 50 can be triggered, only likely to cloud matters further, the Pound could well come under further pressure as we head towards the end of 2016.

This analysis leads me to believe that anyone with a short to medium-term GBP/EUR currency requirement should looking to take advantage of the current improvement if you are holding Sterling, or protect the huge gains made for EUR sellers over the past few months.

If you have an upcoming EUR currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Rates Slide During Tuesday’s Trading (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have dropped once again, ending Sterling’s mini recovery over the past few days. Sterling lost value as rumours surfaced ahead of Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney speech that we were going to hear a dovish tone, which the markets immediately took as a negative for the Pound.

Whilst his comments were not overly positive he did mention a prospective interest rate hike due to UK Prime Minister’s prospective policy changes and this helped boost Sterling’s value and eliminate some of the afternoon’s losses.

GBP/EUR rates dipped to a low of 1.1132 but recovered back towards 1.12 following Carney’s speech. We’ve seen Sterling threaten a mini recovery on more than one occasion and European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi’s speech also curbed any further Sterling advances, as he commented on the current Quantitative Easing (QE) programme and how he felt it was having a positive effect.

I just feel that under the current market conditions the Pound will struggle to make any sustainable impact until at least next year, when key political elections and other factors in the Eurozone may start to drag the EUR value back down. If I was holding EUR I would still look to protect the gains I’d made and with a key data release tomorrow for the UK (UK Gross Domestic Product figures released at 09.30), I expect to see further market movement during Wednesday’s trading.

If you have an upcoming Sterling or Euro currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Euro exchange rates spike due to Deutsche bank concerns – Will the Euro get weaker? (Daniel Wright)

The Euro has had a fairly tough 24 hours following the growing concerns over the value of Deutsche bank share prices as they have continued to drop off for a period of time.

The latest on the share price is that it has climbed back a little in early morning trading today and personally I feel it will come back up however comments from Angela Merkel that she will not support a bailout if required will hold it back and lead to uncertainty for the coming weeks and months.

It would be a great surprise to see Deutsche bank actually hit huge trouble but after a flurry of large fines and problems it is no surprise that the bank is finding life tough at present.

There are so many problems around the Eurozone at the moment I am still rather surprised that the Pound is not stronger against the Euro however the uncertainty surrounding what will happen post referendum is of course holding Sterling back.

Mario Draghi (head of the European Central Bank) must have had to replace his broom many times the amount of ‘sweeping under the carpet’ he has to do and my opinion is that next year will be tough for Euro exchange rates.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out now or in the future involving Sterling and Euro then it is extremely important that you have an experienced broker on your side. I will be more than happy to help you for any future exchange, you can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirements and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Best time to buy Euros in 4 weeks (Tom Holian)

Sterling has hit its best level to buy Euros since early August after recent UK economic data showed that things haven’t been as bad as expected since the Brexit vote at the end of June.

UK Retail Sales have shown signs of improvement as well as consumer confidence data rising and yesterday we saw the biggest monthly improvement for UK manufacturing in over 25 years.

Sterling Euro has broken past 1.19 on the Interbank level providing a brief window of opportunity for anyone needing to buy Euros to send to Europe.

The Euro has also come under some pressure recently with inflation only measuring 0.2% which is well below the target set by the European Central Bank.

This provides further evidence that the addition of QE is not having the desired effect and this is being reflected in the value of the Euro vs Sterling.

Next Thursday the ECB will meet to discuss monetary policy and this could see further QE, which could weaken the Euro if any change in policy takes place. Good news if you need to buy Euros in the short term.

However, the lack of clarity as to when Article 50 may be triggered is still causing problems for the Pound and until we have any certainty as to when/ if this will occur then Sterling’s future is still difficult to predict.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

BOE Stability Report to cause volatility for GBP/EUR (Daniel Charles Johnson)

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England (BOE) has recently come under pressure to resign due to his stance in the build up to the referendum. Personally, I totally understand the stance he took. Leaving the EU would cause economic instability which now has become apparent and  his job is to look after the health of our economy.  This justifies his stance and calls for his resignation are ludicrous.

Carney is due to speak today at the financial stability report this morning. He is expected to lay out plans to help the recovery of the UK economy post Brexit. Carney has been very vocal of late in an attempt to bring stability back to the markets. His role will be pivotal moving forward.

Carney has already indicated there is a strong possibility of an interest rate cut, despite UK interest rates already at record lows of 0.5%. I would expect a drop to 0.25%. You cannot  rule out a cut as early as next week although I think August is more likely. Carney has also indicated there is £250bn of Qunatitatvive Easing (QE) ready should it be required.

Keep an eye on EU Retail sales and PMI for the services sector today, although Brexit is sure to be much more relevant in GBP/EUR buoyancy levels.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you inform me of the currency pair you are looking to trade, the time scale and volume I will provide an individual trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country which means I am in a position to beat the nearly every competitors rate of exchange. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you and thank you for reading my blog.

 

 

Today is important for Euro exchange rates if we see any surprises (Daniel Wright)

Today we have a fairly important release from the European Central Bank, as we see the release of the European Central bank interest rate decision and press conference at 12:45pm and 13:30pm this afternoon.

There are no huge surprises expected but this can be a key release for Euro exchange rates, most notably when head of the European  Central Bank Mario Draghi speaks during his press conference at 13:30pm today.

The markets will react to even a hint of a change in fiscal policy from the ECB and Draghi will no doubt be questioned and pushed by members of the media as to what his next move may be.

GBP/EUR has been known to move by over 4% during this press conference and although I highly doubt a swing like this today it is one to watch for sure.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling or Euro for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.