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Tag Archives: EUR strength

Will the Pound to Euro exchange rate be impacted by this morning’s Inflation Data?

This morning at 9.30am there could be further movement for the GBP/EUR exchange rate, as there will be a key data release from within the UK.

The rate of inflation is being watched closely within the UK as the current rate is almost 1% above the Bank of England’s target of 2%, and many have been wondering whether the Bank of England will choose to raise interest rates in order to counter the negative affects of the higher inflation on the UK economy.

We’ve received mixed messages so far from the Bank of England and their voting patterns are also now not far from a 50:50 split.

Due to the plans for the BoE as a whole being unclear it;s difficult to tell which way the markets will react if this mornings reading comes out either higher or lower than the expected  2.9%.

The markets can react off the back of news releases such as this mornings, so if you are planning a currency exchange involving the Pound, do feel free to get in touch and make us aware of your plans so we can keep you updated if there is a big move for that currency.

Another factor that could impact the GBP to EUR exchange rate is the Brexit negotiations that are now underway. David Davis arrived yesterday looking unprepared compared with with his counterparts from the EU, and I think any announcements suggesting the talks are going badly could result in a sell-off of the Pound.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Mixed day for GBP/EUR on final day before the beginning of Brexit, where to next for the pair? (Joseph Wright)

It’s been an interesting day for the Pound today after the currency was hitting March highs against some currencies this morning whereas at the time of writing the Pound is trading down against almost all major currency pairs.

The Pound has traded against the Euro today in both the 1.14’s and the 1.16’s at the mid-market level which just goes to show the volatility trading conditions at present.

Tomorrow the UK government will officially start the Brexit process and I think this will create further volatility between GBP/EUR. It’s impossible to say whether the invocation of Article 50 will offer the markets the certainty it craves or whether the Pound will fall further due to the Brexit not being fully priced into the Pound’s value at the moment.

We have seen the Pound climb in the lead up to today and the pound has been trading at its highest level in a few months against some currency pairs today which suggests that the market jitters surrounding the UK’s Brexit have waned, but seeing GBP sold off towards the end of today does suggest to me that many don’t wish to hold their funds in Pounds over night in case of a sharp sell-off tomorrow.

If you would like to be kept up to date with the pounds movements tomorrow or moving forward, do feel free to get in touch.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

How will the pound to Euro rate react to Article 50 being triggered?

Sterling will now face one of the greatest challenges since the Referendum vote as Theresa May officially triggers Article 50 and announces the UK will send through the notification that it will leave the European Union. Expectations for the pound to fall are high and it is easily argued that the pound will drop but recent sentiments towards the pound have been much more positive and it might be that we actually see some big unexpected swings around this time as the markets try to figure out just what it believes will happen. GBPEUR could rise to as much as 1.20 or parity according to the forecasts! I personally foresee a range between 1.12 and 1.16.

If you are looking to make any currency exchanges then making some plans in advance is key to catching a deal on the volatility. If you have a transfer to make the likelihood for the pound to rise is now higher but with such an assumption comes considerable risk. Even if sterling does rise we are in for a very uncertain time after Wednesday as we learn finer details on Theresa May’s plans. It might be that the EU release a statement which states a little about the negotiating position and perhaps paints the pound in a more negative light.

As positive about the whole Brexit plans as I want to be I cannot find myself searching for answers to some seriously difficult questions. How will the UK survive losing or complicating trade with its biggest trading partner? What industries will be exempt from the deals? What will be the costs of the Brexit bill and will the UK potentially crash out of the EU with no deal at all.

The answers to these questions will become more apparent in the weeks to come. From Wednesday it will be apparent that Brexit really is happening, there will be no going back. GBPEUR is loosely in the middle of the ranges we have been enjoying this year but I do not expect the market to remain calm for long!

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk or calling 00 (0) 1494 787 478 during UK business hours.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you in due course,

Look out for UK inflation

At 9.30 this morning the UK are set to release their latest Consumer Price Index (inflation) numbers. The Bank of England’s 2% target could be exceeded which could cause a small spike in the market for euro buyers. The consensus is for inflation to rise to 2.1%,

Inflation numbers have a major influence on interest rates. If inflation continues to rise the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates which will in turn strengthen the pounds value. It was only last Thursday when Kristin Forbes voted in favour of raising rates and the latest minutes stated other members were sitting on the fence.

In other news Theresa May is set to trigger Article 50 next week and forecasters are split to whether this will strengthen the pound as the triggering will bring certainty to the market or if the pound will fall as there is no going back. Personally I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pound fall which will make purchasing euros become more expensive.

For euro buyers if the market spikes in your favour this morning this may be the best time to buy euros for the next couple of weeks and therefore is seriously worth taking advantage of. If you are purchasing euros short term there is still time to speak to me to outline your options and the process of using the brokerage I work. By doing this I will be able to save you a considerable amount of money on your transfer. Call the trading floor on 01494 787478 and ask for Dayle Littlejohn.

For euro sellers you have come this far, I personally would wait to see how the triggering of Article 50 impacts the pound and then asses your position their after. To outline your position feel free to email me and I will respond with the process drl@currencies.co.uk.

What next for pound to Euro exchange rates?

The big news on the pound to Euro rates now is when will Theresa May trigger Article 50. With the Bill to trigger Article 50 passed into law the next milepost on the journey is the long awaited use of it. I personally expect that the rate will rise above 1.15 possibly towards 1.17 once the Article 50 is enacted but we could quite easily rates slip back towards 1.10. This is the kind of information that will prove useful to clients monitoring the market for further news and information on spikes in the exchange rate.

The main news at the moment is the triggering of Article 50 and the likelihood of it strengthening or weakening the pound. Most commentators are keen awaiting further information on the market and expectations around this historic event. Some banks are still predicting GBPEUR could drop to parity later in the year. Personally, I believe a lower level of 1.10 is very realistic at some point in the coming weeks once Article 50 is triggered.

We will at this time be presented with lots of new questions. What kind of deal will the UK be able to achieve with the EU? Will the UK’s Brexit bill and Scottish Referendum debates overshadow any positive views of the Brexit? The answers to these questions are not going to manifest quickly but they will remain in the background and I believe put pressure on the pound and future direction for the pound.

The overall likelihood of rates moving higher in the short term is therefore not guaranteed but the market has clearly not made up its mind as to which way this will go. We also have the French election in April, the next few days and weeks could be very volatile for GBPEUR.

If you are looking to make any transfers involving the pound and Euro making some plans in advance is sensible. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Will Brexit concerns outweigh political uncertainty in Europe? (Joseph Wright)

I personally think that the upcoming elections within the key members of the European Union along with how trade negotiations go for the UK as Brexit begins, will be the key drivers of the GBP/EUR pair in the upcoming months.

The major financial institutions appear to have mixed views of how the Pound will perform will some expecting some major falls as the UK enters uncertain times, with other expecting to see the Pound return to pre-Brexit levels as the downside has already been priced into the Pounds current value.

This past weekend Morgan Stanley shared their opinions on the Pound and it made for interesting reading. Analysts at the bank are currently very optimistic regarding the Pounds future performance, and announced that they believe the Pound is the most undervalued major currency currency in the world and will re-bound to it’s pre-Brexit levels. They’re of this opinion because they believe the risk of the UK leaving the EU’s single market without trade deals in place have already been priced in to the markets so they don’t see much more downside.

This is at odd’s with other price forecasts with some major banks expecting to see the Pound fall once the complicated nature of the Brexit becomes clear.

In my time as time within currency markets I think the current climate is the hardest to predict, but I’ll be happy to offer my input if you wish to discuss an upcoming currency requirement.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Pound falls as the Bank of England offer no indications of interest rate hike in the short term future (Joseph Wright)

The Pound fell against the Euro as well as many other major currencies yesterday after currency markets appeared to make the wrong call on what Mark Carney would say during his speech yesterday afternoon.

Despite many expecting to see interest rates remain as they are, there were hopes that Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England would offer an insight into when the BoE planned on next raising rates but he surprisingly dovish, resulting in Sterling weakness.

The short-term selloff yesterday afternoon has done little to dent the gains made by the Pound over the recent weeks. The UK has defied expectations since the Brexit vote and last week’s GDP figures indicated that the UK is the fastest growing economy within the G7 group of countries.

Also the most recent Inflation Report made for good reading for the UK after the BoE raised their growth forecasts for the UK up to 2% from their previous figure of 1.4% which was suggested as soon as November.

Should the bullishness surrounding the UK economy continue I’m expecting to see the pound trade at a higher level against the Euro by this time next year, but I think there could be headwinds for the Pound in the meantime as the Brexit actually begins.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Sterling hits 10 week high against the Euro, will it reach 1.20? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has had a very positive November, and against the Euro it’s value has moved up from lows of 1.1050 to an inter-bank level of 1.18 yesterday.

This is a considerable jump, one of the largest for the Pound and to put it in monetary terms, a €200,000 purchase is now £10,650 cheaper now the Pound has gained roughly around 7 cents since it’s monthly lows.

This Autumn Budget took place earlier this week and sprung no surprises, which resulted in further sterling strength and gave the currency the impetus to hit 1.18 vs the euro at the inter-bank level.

Whilst there’s a chance the Pound could come crashing back down as currencies do tend to fall alot faster than they rise, there are a number of issues in Europe which could weigh on the Euro’s value and help the Pound make even further gains in the GBP/EUR pair, perhaps pushing it above 1.20.

Next month there will be a referendum in Italy regarding constitutional reform and should the Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi lose the vote, it could be significant as it was his idea to hold the vote.

Austria is also having a referendum in December and next year both Germany and France will have their own, and with the right-leaning populist governments gaining popularity there could be further shocks to the system which could weaken the Euro.

If you are planning a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Will GBPEUR soon hit 1.20?

Euro sellers for the pound could soon be in for a real shock with the markets predicting all manner of outcomes that lead to Euro weakness in the coming weeks. Whilst sterling could easily fall lower in the coming weeks we could also see the Euro suffering even more and this should be something anyone holding Euros waiting for sterling to crash should be careful of.

Next month are some very key events on the Euro which could easily see the Euro tumble as it pushes attention back squarely on the Eurozone and the political situation in the European Union. Firstly we have the Italian Referendum due on the 4th December which is related to constitutional reform but is becoming more a vote on the popularity of the current Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. In my opinion we could see the euro weaken dramatically  in December if the Italians choose to vote against the government with Renzi saying he would quit.

As if the outlook politically in the EU wasn’t enough we also have the worries and fears over the economics in the Eurozone with the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi saying he might be looking at more Quantitative Easing (QE). This could easily upset the Euro moving forward as well so personally if you are buying euros rates could get better, if you are selling for pounds I would be moving sooner or on any spikes in your favour.

For more information on the very best rates of exchange and timing please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing me jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling to Euro rate hits its best levels in a month, will the Trump presidency be good for the Pound? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling exchange rates surged yesterday afternoon across the board, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate jumping almost 1.5%.

Positive sentiment towards the Pound is at it’s highest point in some time as it appears that the Trump presidency has worked out surprisingly well for the Pound. In his campaign he had previously stated that the UK would be a key trading partner, which is in contrast to the current US President, Barack Obama who had previously said that the UK would be at the back of the queue on trade deals after the Brexit vote.

The GBP/EUR rate is currently just below 1.16 at the mid-market level, which is huge surprise considering where the rate was just last week.

It’s difficult to tell where the rate will go from here as who would have expected the Pound to surge off the back of a Trump victory, and who would have expected Trump to win in the first place after all polls pointed in the direction of a Clinton victory.

Irrespective of future price movements those that have been planning on selling Sterling in the short term future have been dealt a favourable hand, and through the use of a specialist currency brokerage such as ourselves clients will be able to make the most of their transactions due to our highly competitive exchange rates.

If you are planning a currency conversion involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.