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Tag Archives: Sterling forecast

ECB decision fails to inspire the Euro

The European Central Bank (ECB) has today confirmed the expected news that yes ultimately they will be looking to taper their QE program. There is a strong belief that the ECB will in the future withdraw the stimulus that they have been injecting into financial markets which have been essentially propping up the Eurozone. With high unemployment and low growth the ECB were forced to act, is now the right time to be scaling back though?

In essence the ECB have been very positive today which has helped further strengthen the Euro. Expectations on the rates for the coming months are now centered around this withdrawal of the QE program and longer term I expect the Euro will continue to rise against the pound. If you need to buy Euros with pounds getting something done sooner on any improvements is more than likely the best way forward.

The next big news will be 24th September election in Germany, whilst Angela Merkel is expected to win comfortably there are no guarantees and this could cause volatility. The UK election back in June was supposed to be a straightforward one with Theresa May expected to win a strong majority, however she didn’t and the rate fell.

If you have any pound to euro exchanges that you will need to make in the future making plans in advance and working to secure a target level can save you much time and hassle. We are specialist currency brokers here to help with the planning and timing of any currency exchanges that you will need in the future.

For more information at no cost or obligation please feel free to contact me Jonathan Watson directly by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Sterling begins a busy day on the back foot, will the downward trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has started the day on the back foot this morning as it’s dropped against all major currency pairs this morning.

At 9.30am there will be the release of Manufacturing and Industrial data from the UK which will give us an idea of how those sectors of the UK economy are performing, and then later this afternoon there will be a release of GDP data from one of the UK’s most prominent think tanks.

The Pound is coming under pressure after rumours of the Brexit negotiations beginning badly,  and talk of a large Brexit bill isn’t doing the Pound any favours either.

The next few weeks will be interesting as since the Brexit vote the Pound to Euro exchange rate hasn’t fallen below 1.10, so if the downward pressure on the Pound continues we will soon find out whether 1.10 will continue to act as a support level. Those with a currency requirement involving the selling of Pounds and converting them into Euros who look to avoid risk may wish to consider the current levels in case the rate continues to fall.

The Euro has benefited well from the weakness in the US Dollar as of late, so it’s worth noting that the GBP/EUR weakness is down to Euro strength as well as Pound weakness.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

All eyes on Bank of England governor Ben Broadbent this lunchtime, will GBP/EUR see movement today? (Joseph Wright)

This afternoon at 12.00 BST a key member of the Bank of England will be speaking in Aberdeen, and this event will have the potential to move the stagnant Pound to Euro rate.

Those converting Pounds into Euros and vice versa have been left with a very flat market in recent weeks, with the pair moving no more than a couple of cents over the past month or so.

The biggest moves during this period of flatness have come in the wake of hints at future monetary policy by key policy makers in the UK. The reason today’s speech is being talked up within the financial media is because Ben Broadbent has kept his cards close regarding his outlook, whereas many others have already made their thoughts clear.

After a close vote last time around, where the voting members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favour of keeping rates the same by 5-3, some economists time think there could be a vote in favour of raising rates at the next opportunity on the 3rd of August.

The Pound is likely to climb should Broadbent join the hawks and talk in terms of a rate hike being good for the UK economy.

Tomorrows unemployment data at 9.30 could also result in market movement, so feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept updated regarding this data release and what the expectations are.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Sterling drops as key UK figureheads make dovish comments at Mansion House speech, will Sterling continue to drop?

The Pound has dropped across the board this morning as one of the most important figures within the UK economy, Mark Carney (the governor of the Bank of England) has suggested that interest rates shouldn’t rise yet.

The Pound is now trading at a 1-week low after these comments, as Carney said that Britain isn’t ready for higher rates. His comments would have shocked the markets as many would have been expecting to see a rate hike within the UK after almost half of the voting members of the BoE just last week voted in favour of raising interest rates.

Carney said that it wouldn’t be right to change rates whilst we don’t know the outcome of Brexit negotiations.

The reason behind the Pound dropping in light of these comments, as well as some similarly dovish comments by Phillip Hammond (Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer), is that a rate hike would most likely give the Pound a boost which is why the Pound climbed last week after the BoE’s voting decision.

There isn’t much further data out this week for the Pound specifically, so I expect sentiment to continue to drive rates.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Sterling to Euro rate jumps after BoE rate decision, will Sterling continue to climb? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound jumped at 12pm this afternoon, making the rate for buying Euros much cheaper for our clients in just a matter of seconds.

Financial markets were expecting to see all members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee vote in favour of keeping rates on hold, but got a shock when almost half voted in favour of rising rates.

At the time of writing our clients are able to book Pound to Euro rates that are over 1-cent higher than the lowest level seen today after the Pound has managed to hold onto its gains after the decision.

The reasoning behind some of the voting members decision to raise rates is most likely due to the raising rates of inflation, which are now almost 1% above the BoE’s target of 2%.

The BoE is likely to have to raise the base rate of interest in order to counter the negative effects of inflation within the UK, especially as the rate of wage growth is declining which will leave investors with a lot less spending power.

Moving forward I think that those with a GBP/EUR currency requirement should keep an eye on inflation rates, and feel free to keep in contact with us regarding the rate and also the dates that the data is released.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

How could tomorrow’s general election impact the Pound to Euro exchange rate? (Joseph Wright)

There could be a lot of movement within the Pound to Euro exchange rate tomorrow, as the results from today’s voting will be released most likely in the early hours of this morning.

Many are expecting to see the Conservatives win a majority and this is why we’ve seen the Pound climb during today’s trading session. The Pound had been under pressure as the election race has got a lot closer recently after looking like a foregone conclusion at times.

Despite these expectations I think there’s a number of potential outcomes and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the markets react to the result in a way that many are not expecting. For example, if Labour win there could be a much ‘softer brexit’ which up until this year would have been considered a good thing, which could result in a boost to the Pounds value.

This is an alternative outcome as many are expecting the Pound to fall if the Conservatives don’t win an outright majority.

During times of market volatility such as this it can be a good idea to set up a Limit Order to try and trade at higher levels, if you would like to discuss this further do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Is now the time to buy euros? (Dayle Littlejohn)

If you have been watching GBPEUR exchange rates with a close eye, you will know that rates of exchange are fluctuating towards a 6 month high, however this could change this weekend.

The French Presidential election is this Sunday and the two candidates are Pro EU Macron and anti EU Marine Le Pen. Both candidates have different views in regards to France’s future within the European Union. Macron wants to remain Le Pen wants to leave.

Depending on the result this weekend I expect GBPEUR exchange rates to fall by a couple of cents or rise substantially, past the 6 month high barrier. Polls are suggesting that Macron will win which would therefore lead to euro strength however within the past year I have learnt to take polls with a pinch of salt.

My personal opinion is that Macron will pull through therefore GBPEUR exchange rates will fall. If you have euros to buy now could be the time. Euro sellers could receive a spike next week which may be worth taking advantage of.

In other news the US are set to release their latest interest rate decision this evening and the consensus on the market is for rates to remain unchanged. This shouldn’t be a shock so I expect minor US dollar weakness and euro strength. However on Friday Non Farm Payroll numbers (jobs created) is set to be released. As the number was so low last month I expect an improvement which could lead to dollar strength and euro weakness. Again this could strengthen the position for euro buyers towards the end of the week.

If you reading this website for the first time as you need to convert GBPEUR, feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage and would like to a free quote email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands.

Timing a GBPEUR transfer (Dayle Littlejohn

For clients that are converting pounds into euros or euros into pounds short term, economic data will continue to have an impact on the exchange rate the client receives however more importantly I expect the French election on May 7th to dictate exchange rates at least until the UK’s snap election on June 8th.

Last weekend was the first round of the French election and Macron (Pro EU) and Marine Le Pen (Anti EU) were the two top candidates that made their way through to the head to head. As Macron received 24.01% compared to Le Pen 21.3% the euro has strengthened against the pound. The consensus on the market was that Le Pen had more chance of winning the first round compared to the second.

Fast forward to May 7th, if Macron wins and becomes the next President I expect the euro to strengthen further against sterling, and my opinion I believe this will occur. However if Le Pen pulls through and shocks the world I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPEUR break through 1.20s and even reach 1.23.

For clients that are buying properties in the Eurozone or have sold a property and repatriating back to sterling its important to understand within the last 4 weeks exchange rates have fluctuated 5 cents and I expect the market to be just as volatile within the next 30 days. If a client purchased €200,000 at the top end of the market compared to the bottom they would have saved themselves £7,250. Therefore it just shows how important it is to speak to an expert within the field before making any decisions.

If you are buying or selling Euros in the upcoming months and are looking to achieve competitive rates of exchange whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you along with the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

French Election on the horizon (Dayle Littlejohn)

Purchasing euros with sterling has become more attractive this week for two main reasons. Firstly Theresa May’s shock announcement that the UK will be holding a snap election on the 8th June has provided strength for the pound. The reason for this is that the market feels that Theresa May will win a majority and therefore will have more power when negotiation the final Brexit deal.

Secondly the French election is now on the horizon and anti EU Marine Le Pen is performing well in the polls and is likely to get through to the head to head vote with one other candidate. Le Pen has made it clear a referendum in regards to EU membership will occur if she gets into power and this is lowering investor confidence within the Eurozone.

Me personal opinion is that Le Pen will get through the first round but fall at the last fence and Pro EU candidate Macron will be the next President. However I also thought the UK would remain part of the EU and Donald Trump would not become President of the US. Therefore if I were selling euros to buy pounds in the upcoming weeks I would not gamble on this election and would consequently convert my currency sooner rather than later.

The currency company I work for helps clients repatriate euros from property sales abroad. If you fit into this category and want to make as much sterling as possible feel free to email me with a brief description and I will respond with the process.

For Euro buyers we are sitting close to a 6 month high and I still believe there could be further opportunities in the upcoming weeks. I would recommend again emailing with your requirements and using limit orders to achieve certain rates of exchange that you have set drl@currencies.co.uk.

If you are already using a brokerage I would recommend comparing rates. An email which will take you 30 seconds could make or save you thousands in the future.

How high will GBPEUR rise in the next week?

The pound to Euro rate has risen higher as investors brace for the French election this weekend and the currency market backs Theresa May to win a significant majority in the snap election that she has called. There is clearly a building pressure on the GBPEUR rate and the potential for this to rise higher now is in my opinion high. There is a very strong chance Marine Le Pen will make it into the second round of the French election next week which should see the Euro under pressure, this will help any clients looking to buy Euros.

The overall expectations for GBPEUR are now that we will easily rise above 1.20, we are currently at 1.1950 and did hit 1.1994 yesterday so calling 1.20 does not take much insight. A move above 1.20 will be significant although more interesting will be how the market performs from there on in. Ultimately the previous attempts to this level have all been unsuccessful and clients waiting to buy at 1.20 will, without doubt carry some risk as to the likelihood of a sustained move.

If you are looking to buy Euros at 1.20 or higher than making some plans around the important news this weekend is vital to try and protect yourself from future volatility on the markets. The pound is never far from bad news and whilst this recent strength is most welcome for Euro buyers, waiting around and hoping that it will just keep on rising could be a very risky strategy.

If you wish to get the latest news on the rates and the markets please do feel free to get in touch by emailing me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk.