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Tag Archives: sterling weakness

Euro begins to rise as markets await ECB meeting, will the ECB taper its stimulus programme today? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is losing some ground this morning as financial markets await the ECB’s meeting later this afternoon.

It will begin at 12.45pm UK time and many are predicting that Mario Draghi may announce tapering plans today. This would be considered a positive for the Euro and I would personally expect to see the EUR to GBP rate improve if this plan is announced.

On the other hand, those hoping for a stronger Pound should keep an eye on what’s said by Draghi as if the subject isn’t touched on, on Draghi suggests that there are no short term plans to taper the current quantitative easing programme I think we can expect to see the Pound climb.

Yesterday morning there was some disappointing data out for the UK as services sector PMI came out below expectations and hit a 11-month low. This sector is very important for the UK as it covers roughly around 80% of the UK economy.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding any short term price movements between the pair in question do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will ‘Super Thursday’ result in a big move for the Pound to Euro exchange rate? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is currently trading within a very thin range of just 25 pips, although throughout the day this range could certainly be tested.

Today is being dubbed as ‘Super Thursday’ due to the large volume of data due out of the UK today, and I expect the UK to be in full focus throughout the day as investors await the data releases which start at 9.30am.

The first data release will cover sentiment within the UK services sector, which is an important release due to the services sector making up such a large part of the UK economy. A disappointing release is likely to result in Sterling weakness due to the importance of the sector.

Perhaps today’s most important news release will be around lunchtime today when the Bank of England’s Interest Rate Decision will be released. Although I’m not expecting there to be a change, I think that if the voting patterns sway from the previous 5-3 vote in favour of keeping rates on hold there will be movement for the GBP/EUR pair.

The Speech afterwards from the BoE governor Mark Carney is also likely to create movement for Sterling exchange rates, especially if there are any allusions to future monetary policy changes.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will the Pound to Euro exchange rate be impacted by this morning’s Inflation Data?

This morning at 9.30am there could be further movement for the GBP/EUR exchange rate, as there will be a key data release from within the UK.

The rate of inflation is being watched closely within the UK as the current rate is almost 1% above the Bank of England’s target of 2%, and many have been wondering whether the Bank of England will choose to raise interest rates in order to counter the negative affects of the higher inflation on the UK economy.

We’ve received mixed messages so far from the Bank of England and their voting patterns are also now not far from a 50:50 split.

Due to the plans for the BoE as a whole being unclear it;s difficult to tell which way the markets will react if this mornings reading comes out either higher or lower than the expected  2.9%.

The markets can react off the back of news releases such as this mornings, so if you are planning a currency exchange involving the Pound, do feel free to get in touch and make us aware of your plans so we can keep you updated if there is a big move for that currency.

Another factor that could impact the GBP to EUR exchange rate is the Brexit negotiations that are now underway. David Davis arrived yesterday looking unprepared compared with with his counterparts from the EU, and I think any announcements suggesting the talks are going badly could result in a sell-off of the Pound.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

How will the pound to euro rate react to the UK election?

The pound to Euro rate is looking ever volatile as we get closer to the UK election with the market trying to find its feet according to the latest trends and themes. Overall the belief is that Theresa May will win and this will see the pound rise higher and closer towards the higher teens. I think 1.20 is out of the question but there is a strong likelihood we could see the rates jump up higher which would present some good fresh opportunities to buy Euros.

Overall I believe that the market is pricing in a higher chance of a hung parliament and a Theresa May victory than will actually occur. This is because markets go their fingers burnt over the EU Referendum and Trump. Therefore markets want to price in the possibility of an unexpected outcome no matter how unlikely it is. If you have a transfer to make in the future making some plans in advance is sensible to try and limit your exposure to the markets.

Overall the big surprise would be losses for the Tories and for Theresa May to lose the election. The market must now price in this possibility but it is highly unlikely to materialise in my opinion. Therefore if you have a transfer to make this week or next or beyond making some plans in advance is crucial to getting the best deal and most from the market.

For more information on the likelihood of an unexpected shock and to receive some assistance with the timing and planning of any exchanges please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more. I have worked helping clients move funds internationally for almost ten years and working as an Associate Director for the one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokerages am well placed to offer some practical support with any transfers.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

UK inflation to dictate exchange rates today (Dayle Littlejohn)

This morning at 9.30 the UK are set to release their latest inflation numbers. The numbers are set to show a small decline to 1.9% which is 0.1% below the Bank of England’s target. I wouldn’t be surprised if the consensus if wrong for this one and inflation meets the 2% target which leads to sterling strength. This release is within the next 20 minutes therefore new readers will not be able to trade before the release however you would be able to convert currency and take advantage of our bank beating exchange rates later today.

Longer term the French election towards the end of this month and next could devalue the Euro as there are now four candidates that could actually win. Furthermore Marine Le Pen is ahead on the polls to win the first round. She has an anti EU stance and plans to pull France from the Euro if she wins.

It’s not all good news for euro buyers at any point Brexit negotiations could come to a halt when negotiators do not come to an agreement. I believe Sterling exchange rates will have a direct correlation to Brexit negotiations therefore unexpected falls could occur at any point.

If you reading this website for the first time as you need to convert GBPEUR, feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage and would like to a free quote email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands.

Common clients I help on a daily basis are Sole traders, MD or FD of a company, property buyers and sellers. If you are one of the three and are currently using the bank to transfer your currency you need to be made aware that you could be saving money!

Will Brexit concerns outweigh political uncertainty in Europe? (Joseph Wright)

I personally think that the upcoming elections within the key members of the European Union along with how trade negotiations go for the UK as Brexit begins, will be the key drivers of the GBP/EUR pair in the upcoming months.

The major financial institutions appear to have mixed views of how the Pound will perform will some expecting some major falls as the UK enters uncertain times, with other expecting to see the Pound return to pre-Brexit levels as the downside has already been priced into the Pounds current value.

This past weekend Morgan Stanley shared their opinions on the Pound and it made for interesting reading. Analysts at the bank are currently very optimistic regarding the Pounds future performance, and announced that they believe the Pound is the most undervalued major currency currency in the world and will re-bound to it’s pre-Brexit levels. They’re of this opinion because they believe the risk of the UK leaving the EU’s single market without trade deals in place have already been priced in to the markets so they don’t see much more downside.

This is at odd’s with other price forecasts with some major banks expecting to see the Pound fall once the complicated nature of the Brexit becomes clear.

In my time as time within currency markets I think the current climate is the hardest to predict, but I’ll be happy to offer my input if you wish to discuss an upcoming currency requirement.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Sterling Exchange Rates Supported on Steady UK Outlook (James Lovick)

The pound continues to be supported against most of the major currencies with no major falls deposit the ongoing uncertainty that surrounds Brexit. The markets appear to be taking the political developments in the House of Commons as welcome news that the process to commence Brexit will now be going ahead. The House of Commons voted overwhelming in favour of proceeding with the bill to invoke Article 50 without any amendments. It would appear that the risks of Brexit are nowhere near as much of a concern as they were 8 months ago.

UK industrial and production numbers are released this morning at 09:30 and high volatility is to be expected. Any steady or event stronger number could see additional support for the pound today. This afternoon sees UK GDP numbers from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research(NIESR). High volatility is expected from this data release as it represents a forecast for the next three months. It is also very highly regarded as an excellent precursor to the official GDP numbers released in the coming weeks.

Any weakening here today which is plausible as we approach Brexit could see sterling weakness. The pound has a good run so far but there are concerns that higher inflation is likely to see growth stall in the coming months. Those clients looking to buy Euros would be wise to make contact as there is considerable risk to the downside with so much going on in these markets at present. The political element has never been more present as far as the pound is concerned to the extent that sterling has recently been regarded as a political currency.

If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Will the pound to Euro rate rise or fall in February?

The pound to Euro rate is likely to rise in my opinion as political pressures in the Eurozone weigh on the market and expectations of what lies around the corner. I think at this point it is worth pointing out that this time last year no one was expecting Brexit or a Trump Presidency. We can easily be lulled into a false sense of security with so many varying factors which can alter perceptions and outcomes on financial markets.

Looking further ahead into the future we can see the French election and also the Dutch election. The Dutch election is the 15th March and the French election the 23rd April. Most commentators do not believe the right wing candidates will find favour but we should probably be ready to anticipate so especially since the market will likely look to these events and sell off the Euro in the future.

If you are selling euros to buy pound I would expect that the market could soon slip back over 1.20 presenting some fresh opportunities for clients buying the Euro with pounds to get some better rates. The chance of the 1.20 is rather slim at this stage but could become a reality in the coming weeks and months. It is more than likely that the pound will struggle itself but I do expect attention to shift across the Channel in due course.

If you are looking to buy euros with pounds then these events could well manifest in the coming weeks and provide some extra opportunity. The expectation is for the pound to weaken too but this might well be priced already into the cost of the pound. With so much negativity on the pound for so long, the fact we now have a loose blueprint over what to expect for Brexit has helped sterling to rise somewhat.

If you are looking to make a currency transfer in the future involving pounds and euros understanding the market and all of your options is key to maximising your advantage to get the best rates. For more information and insight please don’t hesitate to contact me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will GBP/EUR test 1.20 again during 2016? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound enjoyed a strong November as the currency gained against all other major currency pairs.

After gaining around 7-8 cents against the Euro the currency has begun December in good health and earlier this week the pair breached 1.20 for a short while.

It was the outcome of the Italian Referendum that gave the Pound an extra boost as the current Italian PM, Matteo Renzi lost a vote on whether or not there should be constitutional reform within Italy. The Referendum was his idea and after losing he’s decided to step down which initially sent the Euro to it’s weakest level since July.

Since then Renzi has agreed to stay on for at least a week to oversea Italy’s 2016 budget, and this has halted the Euro sell-off if only for now.

Moving forward I expect the Governments appeal against the High Court’s decision (they recently ruled that the initiation of the Brexit process requires parliamentary approval) to be a driver of Sterling exchange rates and if the government is unsuccessful I’m expecting Sterling to rally, perhaps breaching the key 1.20 level and consolidating there also.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

How will the US election effect pound to euro exchange rates?

The US election tomorrow will see some big movements as investors try to second guess where to put their money in advance of any decision. The US election is an unpredictable as ever despite Clinton moving ahead in the polls and expectations owing to the clarification from the FBI any investigation was dropped. I would not be ruling out Donald Trump causing a major upset! Just like with Brexit there is a big significant anti-government movement that might be keen to punish the establishment. How might these moves affect the pound to euro exchange rate?

Markets are unpredictable at the best of times but this election more so. Despite this let me try and explain what we could expect on GBPEUR. Usually once an election is decided the currency of that country will strengthen. With most analysts predicting there will be a higher chance of an interest rate hike whoever is in power after Wednesday the US dollar should strengthen. This will lead to a weaker pound or euro as investors sell off their GBP or Euro denominated assets to purchase the dollar.

The question begs which will weaken further the euro or the pound in this scenario. This is a very tough question but looking at the performance so far this year on both currencies you will have to expect sterling to weaken further. I think therefore that if you need to buy Euros moving sooner rather than later is sensible to help mitigate the uncertainty around.

If Trump gets in then all bets are off and we could easily see the pound rally as the US dollar is sold off Trump is by far the bigger risk event but with many in business predicting he would be good for the US economy could he also cause the US dollar to rise? As you can see there are no clear cut answers making any decisions difficult!

If you have a transfer to make in the future than understanding the market and all of your options well in advance is a good way to mitigate the uncertainty. For more information at no cost or obligation please to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk